About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 11 October 2015

Market Signals for the US S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 12


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2015, 3.26%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8190, 3.05%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3183, 4.27%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1156, 1.58%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
49.50, 8.39%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.42, 3.18%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
809, -9.00%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1358, 1.32%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
120.22, 0.27%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
8253, 4.82%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.10%, 5.53%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
-75, 83.42%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
17.08, -18.43%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
1957, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
1993, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2062, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7940, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8097, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8378, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
18.92, -1.61%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.71,-0.78%
Neutral
Bullish




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
11
13

Bearish Indications
3
3

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The Sand P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish. The Vix is back in complacency mode. We are entering a weak period for risk assets globally and declines are likely in both indices in the upcoming months following this bounce.


On the Horizon
 China loan data, China, US, UK and New Zealand CPI, US Fed Beige Book, Australia employment data, Euro zone ZEW sentiment survey, US retail sales and consumer confidence.






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


The markets rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week and this bounce is on the verge of completion. The S and P 500 and several global indices are completing massive bear flags which should resolve to the downside. The markets are expected to encounter resistance at higher levels on any bounces, with the 2020-2030 zone on the S and P 500 acting as major resistance. There will be more downside upcoming in the #Nifty and the S and P 500, with at least a retest of the lows for the S and P 500 near 1867 and Nifty near 7550 in the upcoming months. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback. Hottest Deals On Refurbished Apple Products | JemJem

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