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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday 20 September 2015

Market Signals for the US S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 21


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
1958, -0.15%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
7982, 2.47%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3098, -3.20%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1139, 2.82%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
45.32, 1.21%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.38, -2.94%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
960, 17.36%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1300, -0.31%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
119.52, -0.89%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
8036, -0.19%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.13%, -2.43%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
-377, 27.91%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
22.28, -3.97%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
1953, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2039, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2069, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7846, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8233, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8402, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
18.29, -26.76%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
65.84,- 0.67%
Neutral
Bullish




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
7
9

Bearish Indications
5
5

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The Sand P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. While indicators are bullish,
any bounces will be short lived and massive declines are likely in both indices in the upcoming months.


On the Horizon
Greek Elections, US Durable Goods, Japan CPI.






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


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The markets recovered last week. Signals are nominally bullish for the upcoming week and markets are in #crash mode. The #SandP500 and several global indices are completing massive bear flags which are resolving to the downside. The U.S FOMC can do nothing to change this. There will be more downside upcoming in the #Nifty and the S and P 500, with at least a retest of the lows for the S and P 500 near 1867 and Nifty near 7550 this month. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.
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Cash - 40%
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Fixed deposit - 20%
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Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.