About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 13 September 2015

Market Signals for the US S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 14


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
1961, 2.07%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
7789, 1.75%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3200, 1.27%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1108, -1.28%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
44.78, -2.16%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.45, 6.06%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
818, -6.51%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1336, 1.70%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
120.58, 1.28%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
8052, 3.31%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.18%, 2.58%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
-553, 10.42%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
23.20, 16.55%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
1979, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2048, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2071, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7957, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
8276, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8415, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
24.98, -5.48%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
66.29,- 0.61%
Neutral
Bullish




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
8
10

Bearish Indications
7
7

Outlook
Marginally Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The Sand P 500 and Nifty rebounded last week. Indicators are bullish.
After a bounce early in the week looking for weakness in the Nifty and the S and P 500 to resume with a possible retest of earlier lows post the FOMC.


On the Horizon
Euro zone ZEW Survey, US, Canada and UK CPI, US Retail Sales, US FOMC and Swiss rate decisions, New Zealand GDP.






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, Dailyfx


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


The markets recovered last week. Signals are nominally bullish for the upcoming week and markets are in #crash mode. The #SandP500 and several global indices are completing massive bear flags which should resolve to the downside post the Fed. There will be more downside upcoming in the #Nifty and the S and P 500, with at least a retest of the lows for the S and P 500 near 1867. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices.

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