About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Tuesday 7 April 2015

Option strategy to capture the next big move in the market

It appears that volatility will be the name of the game going forward. The Vix appears to be headed upwards in the short term. If volatility was to surge upwards implied volatility on options would do the same. On the daily chart the S and P 500 looks set to break out of a coiled spring like formation out of its recent trading rage between 2040 and 2120.  A strangle strategy would help in capturing this as earnings season begins.
Current S and P 500 spot - 2076
S&P 500 (^GSPC)

Looking at options prices on the CBOE expiring April 30:
2070 puts are available near $25
2080 calls are available near $24
Break even points - 2021, 2129
make money - below 2021 or above 2129
loose money - between 2021 and 2129.

It is note worthy that several asset classes are on the verge of breakouts from their recent trading ranges and such a strategy could be extended to them. In the commodity space gold, copper and crude stand out:

United States Oil ETF (USO)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
In the forex space the Japanese Yen crosses particularly EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY stand out:
EUR/JPY (EURJPY=X)
AUD/JPY (AUDJPY=X)
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.