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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Thursday 23 April 2015

Is the Rupee sending a warning signal to the stock market?

The last time there was significant Rupee weakness was back in August 2013 when the Nifty crashed closed to 20% led by bank stocks that crashed over 30%. Fast forward to today and significant Rupee weakness has started to re-emerge with the Rupee recently breaching the 64 level.
USD/INR (INR=X)
This has yet again caused bank stocks to underperform with the bank nifty down close to 10% from recent highs and further under performance is likely if the Rupee sells off further.
BANK NIFTY (^NSEBANK)
This would also prevent rates from coming down in the short term which is not good for the overall economy and the stock market.
CNX NIFTY (^NSEI)
Recently Indian stock stock market volatility has significantly exceeded US stock market volatility with the India vix crossing 19, yet another warning sign.

The stage appears to be set for significant equity underperformance in 2015.
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Cash - 40%
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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.