Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 14

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2728, 2.41%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	10807, 1.77%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3163, 2.34%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1321, 0.46%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	70.70, 1.41%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	3.11, 0.84%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1453, 5.60%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1947, -0.20%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	109.30, 0.19%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	10714, 3.31%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	35.81, 0.28%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.97%, 0.92%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	313, 88.55%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	12.65, -14.35%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	129	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2673, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2678, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2622, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10637, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10422, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10305, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	13.98, 5.49%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	67.39, 0.87%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	10	11
Bearish Indications	1	3
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish. The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia – RBA meeting minutes, Employment data, China – Industrial production, Japan – GDP, UK- Employment data, Euro – German GDP, German ZEW Economic sentiment, Draghi speech, CPI, U.S – Retail sales,   Crude oil inventories, Canada – CPI, Retail sales
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2740 (up) and 2715 (down) on the S & P and 10900 (up) and 10700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 07

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2663, -0.24%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	10618, -0.69%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3091, 0.29%	Neutral	Neutral
Gold	1315, -0.66%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	69.72, 2.38%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	3.09, 1.30%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1376, 0.07%	Neutral	Neutral
Euro	1.1971, -1.36%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	109.09, 0.00%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	10370, -1.70%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	35.71, 0.01%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.94%, -0.44%	Neutral	Neutral
Nyse Summation Index	166, -19.02%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	14.77, -4.15%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	127	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2660, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2681, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2616, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10552, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10393, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10283, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	13.25, 10.26%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	66.81, 0.45%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	5	6
Bearish Indications	5	5
Outlook	Neutral	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed. The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia – Retail sales, New Zealand – Rate decision, UK- Manufacturing production, BOE rate decision, Euro – Draghi speech, U.S – Powell speech, PPI, Oil inventories, CPI, Canada – Employment data
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

Chart courtesy David Rosenberg 

The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. The markets are gearing for a really big directional move. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Indian market volatility is still well below US market volatility as the nifty is close to resistance while the US market has hit resistance and turned down. The critical levels to watch are 2675 (up) and 2650 (down) on the S & P and 10700 (up) and 10500 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.