Mid Week Market Insight

Some interesting moves in the commodity markets off late. The precious market complex is still languishing near its recent lows while crude oil is near its recent highs. This weeks report focuses on key developments in global commodity markets from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Commodities

Mid Week Market Insight

Markets are at record highs. Valuations appear to be stretched. Here is the latest on valuations from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Valuations

Mid Week Market Insight

The contagion in Turkey appears to be spreading to Brazil, with the Brazilian Real hitting new lows. The US economy continues to hum along with rate hikes on track despite emerging market woes and the strong dollar. The US markets continue to trade near record highs despite developing divergences. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Economy Emerging Markets Crisis Stock Markets

Mid Week Market Insight

The Turkish economy and Lira in complete free fall as bond yields eclipse 20%. Chinese stocks continue to post declines and a hard Brexit looks increasingly likely. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Mid Week Market Insight

Some Interesting Market Divergences

The recent up move in the market has come on waning market momentum and declining market breadth. Also the very narrow leadership shown by the FANG stocks is now developing cracks. With valuations still in the stratosphere and tightening by the FED still not priced in, these divergences are worth considering. Here are these and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Some Developing Market Divergences

Mid Week Market Insight

A bit of curve steepening going into next weeks fed meeting. Momentum clearly outpacing value and that ever expanding ECB balance sheet. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Mid Week Market Insight

Mid Week Market Insight

The Chinese yuan continues its sell off taking other emerging currencies with it. More curve flattening amidst insanely high valuations. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Mid Week Market Insight

Mid Week Market Insight

Trump fires yet another salvo in the trade war with China, which should guarantee a recession down the line given all the curve flattening of late. Turkish bonds, lira and stock market still in free fall. A massive collapse in base metals like copper adding to the recessionary case down the line.These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Midweek Market Insight

Mid Week Market Insight

More trouble in emerging market land. Massive curve flattening across the globe. China free fall continues. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Midweek Market Insight

Mid Week Market Insight

China in absolute free fall and the collapse in the yuan is putting pressure on risk assets across the globe. While growth seems to be holding up in the US it is collapsing everywhere else and just a matter of time before the malaise spreads to the US. The emerging market currency rout continues. This and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Mid Week Market Insight

Mid Week Market Insight

Emerging markets still looking pretty wobbly. A global trade war has begun in earnest. Valuations are still at peak levels. China looks flat out disastrous. Here's all this and more from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Mid Week Market Insight

Mid Week Market Insight

The dollar continues to surge as the euro plunges in response to the crisis in Italy, which has sent Italian bond yields skyrocketing. A flight to quality in US bonds as a risk off trade emerges. Here are these and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today: 

Midweek Market Insight

Mid Week Market Insight

The dollar continues to surge and emerging market currencies like the Lira and the PESO are weakening. Italian credit spreads continue to widen and a broad risk off trade is emerging. Here is your mid week market insight on these topics from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today: 

Midweek Market Insight

Mid Week Market Insight

Global risk are piling up off late. Whether it be surging US bond yields or the surging dollar that has arisen out of a collapsing Euro following the Italian elections, risks to global asset classes are on the rise. The prospects for a waterfall decline similar to 1987 are fast rising. Here is your mid week market insight on these topics from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Mid Week Market Insight

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily market insight from some of the best asset managers, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Daily Market Insight

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily market insight from some of the best asset managers, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Daily Market Insight

Bitcoin Signalling Major Risk Off Trade?

A look at the relationship between bitcoin returns and other asset class returns over the last year throws up some interesting details. There is a weak inverse relationship between bitcoin returns and the 10 year bond yield changes but the relationship between other asset class returns and bitcoin returns is not statistically significant. This suggests a continued melt down in bitcoin is a precursor to higher bond yields which could trigger a move out of risky assets:

Bitcoin Returns Vs Other Asset Class Returns	Correlation	Significance
S & P 500	0.156	0.273
Ten Year Bond Yield	-0.340	0.015
Euro	0.034	0.813
Gold	0.047	0.743
Copper	-0.160	0.261
Crude	-0.180	0.207

A look at the relationship of bitcoin itself with other asset classes over the last year reveals some additional info. We can see that bitcoin shows a strong positive relationships with most asset classes and the ten year bond yield and a strong negative relationship with copper. This suggests that the recent sell off in bitcoin could be a precursor to a major risk off trade:

Bitcoin Vs Other Asset Classes	Correlation	Significance
S & P 500	0.860	0.000
Ten Year Bond Yield	0.530	0.000
Euro	0.673	0.000
Gold	0.476	0.000
Copper	-0.879	0.000
Crude Oil	0.800	0.000

Bear Market Lessons from History

While the financial media tends to be absolutely infatuated with stocks hitting new highs every day, we would do well to pay attention to some ongoing bear markets, Charts are courtesy yahoo finance and marketwatch.com:

1) Japanese stocks continue to languish under the effects of deflation following a well over 26 year old bear market, down over 45% from the highs set in 1989.



2) Despite some great innovation out of the U.S from the likes of Apple, Google, Facebook e.t.c the #NASDAQ continues to remain in a 15 year bear market near its highs set in 2000.



3) Despite going parabolic yet again, Chinese stocks continue to remain in a 7 year bear market down well over 50% from the highs set in 2008.

4) US bank stocks are entering a 7 year bear market despite all the #QE money and super low interest rates down over 30% from their highs set in 2008.



5) The #Euro is also in a 7 year bear market down over 25% against the dollar from it's highs set in 2008.



6) #Gold and gold ETF's continue to be in bear markets down well over 35% from their highs set in 2008.



7) The more recent casualty #oil and oil ETF's are down well over 60% from their highs set in 2008.




It is well worth noting that it is no strange coincidence that there are major bear markets in several key asset classes and despite recent bear market rallies caused by the FED's QE for ever policies the hibernating bear is all set to emerge with a vengeance.

Bear market lessons from history from Rajveer Rawlin

Bear Market Lessons From History http://t.co/TcQy3nOE0r pic.twitter.com/wNba6Jh5Ys

— samuelR (@RajveerRawlin) September 7, 2015