Weekly Market Recap from Mooranalytics.com

S&P 500, Energy, Gold, and Bitcoin Futures Overview from Mooranalytics.com for 2/17/23

S&P 500 (H)

On a higher timeframe basis:  On 1/18/22 the break below the 4629.25 line warned of decent pressure and negated the medium-term bullish trend we were in since 3/23/20.  On 8/22/22 we left a medium-term bearish reversal above, which has brought in 676.75 of pressure from the 4178.75  open.  These are ON HOLD.  I warned of possible exhaustion at 3531.25-04.75 which had the potential to trigger a bullish correction with a minimum target of 3793.00, and a higher timeframe target of 4190.50—we held this with a 3502.00 low and have bounced 706.50, taking out both targets.    These are ON HOLD.  On a lower timeframe basis:  The trade above 3851.75 warned of renewed strength—we have seen 356.75.  We held 3964.15-54.00 exhaustion with a 3963.25 low and rallied 245.25.   These are ON HOLD.  We are in a bearish correction/trend against the move up from 378850.  Decent trade above 4110.72 (+41 per/hour starting at 9:30am) will warn of decent strength, and possibly a run for 4208.50 (although this is not a projection necessarily).  If this is a correction, which I think is likely, there are areas of possible exhaustion at 4048.00-26.75, 3998.50-83.00, 3949.00-47.50, and 3878.50-57.25.  I would also NOTE that we have entered into the ideal timeframe for one of these to hold, and if we do this could start a whole new medium-timeframe bull structure that could last for months. 

 

Gold (J)

On a higher timeframe basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 warned of renewed strength.  We have seen $905.5.  The break above $1,347.0 projected this upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum.  We have attained $744.2.  These are ON HOLD.  We held major exhaustion at $2,071.6-93.2 with a $2,089.2 high and rolled over $46.7.  We rolled over from $2,079.6 for $456.6. These are ON HOLD.  On a lower timeframe basis:  The break above $1,641.2 (+1 tic per/hour) has brought in $334 of strength.  The solid trade above $1,679.5 (-1 tic per/hour) put this above a major formation --we are projected upward of $80 minimum.  We have attained $295.7 so far.  The break above $1,769.4 has brought in $205.8 of strength.  The break above $1,860.0 warned of renewed strength—we have seen $115.2.  These are ON HOLD.  The trade below $1,966.7 (+.6 of a tic per/hour) has brought in $139.0 of the decent pressure warned about.  The trade below $1,935.3 (+2 tics per/hour) projected this downward an additional $45 (+)—we have attained $107.6 so far.  The break below $1,886.2 (+1.4 tics per/hour) warns of decent pressure—we have seen $58.5 so far.  I would be aware of possible exhaustion at  $1,826.1, $1,816.9, $1,800.3-796.7 (a key area), and lower.  We are holding the upper of these currently with a $1,827.7 low.  Decent trade above $1,842.7 (-5 per/hour starting at 6:00am) will warn of decent short covering, but this is steep to lean against—however, if we break above here decently and back below decently, I would lean against it as a short.  Decent trade above $1,845.1 (-1.3 per/hour starting at 6:00am) just above should bring in decent short covering, and is an easier slope to lean against. 

 

Bitcoin

On a higher timeframe basis: The roll over on 11/10/21 put this into a bearish trend.  I warned the selloff should exceed $13,000 from the high of $69,355—we have seen $54,430 of this.  The trade below $63,285 (+15 per/hour) has brought in $48,360 of the pressure warned about below.  We have come off $36,080 from the $51,005 close. These are ON HOLD.  On a lower timeframe basis:  The trade below $34,830 put this below a significant bearish formation that projected this downward $13,000 minimum, $35,000 (+) maximum.  We have attained $19,905.  These are OFF HOLD.  The break back above $16,275-60 has brought in $9,070 of strength.  The trade above $17,245 (+3 per/hour) warned of continued higher trade—we have seen $7,745. These are ON HOLD.  I cautioned we were either A.) starting a new, lower timeframe bullish structure, or B.) in the last stretch of the move up from the lows—I think the later of the two.  This has given confirmation by holding exhaustion at $25,019-279 with a $25,345 high, failing back below $24,385, taking out the trendline below and rolling over $1,005 into a likely bearish correction.  I warned if this holds and it starts a bearish correction, it should exceed $3,070 from the high—which would make the minimum target $22,275.  Trade above $25,270-350 will be a sign of renewed strength.

 

Crude Oil (WTI) (J)

We settled in a bull leg, but I would disregard this.  Settlement below $79.92 will start this in a bear leg.  On  a macro basis:  On 4/29/20 we left a bullish reversal below—we have seen $115.13 from that open at $15.37 in the (N). On 5/5/20 we left a medium-term bullish reversal below. We have seen $107.05 from $23.45. We held exhaustion with a $34.04 low and rallied $96.46. The trade above $45.21 warned of renewed strength—we have seen $85.29 of this. The break above $47.92 has brought in $82.58 of the strength warned about above. The trade above $52.24 has brought in $78.26 of the strength warned about above. We took out a major trendline at $55.15, which warned of significant strength. We have seen $75.35.  The break above $57.45-8.02 projected this upward $56 minimum, $89 (+) maximum. We attained $72.48.  The trade above $59.50 brought in $71.00 of strength. We have seen $61.02 from $69.48.   The trade above $69.70 has brought in $60.80.  The trade above $71.36 attained $59.14.  These are ON HOLD.  On a shorter-term basis:  Trade below $119.15 brought in $49.07 of pressure. Trade below $115.90 projected this downward $8.85 (+). We attained $45.82. The trade below $104.48 projected this down $17.40 (+) maximum. We attained $34.40. The trade below $99.24 brought in $29.16 of pressure. The trade below $97.18 projected this down $8.30 (+) maximum. We attained $27.58. These are ON HOLD.   The trade above $75.76 (-2 tics per/hour) projects this upward $3.20 (+). We attained $5.28.  I warned today has a good likelihood of seeing range expansion.  This looks weak coming out of the gate. A maintained gap lower will warn of renewed pressure. 

 

Natural Gas (G)

We settled in a bear leg.  Settlement above 2514 will start this in a bull leg.  On a higher timeframe basis:  The failure back below 8440 brought in $6.099 of pressure (in previous contracts).  The trade below 8208 warned of decent pressure.  We attained $5.867 so far.  I warned decent trade below 7188 would be a renewed sign of weakness—we came off  $4.847.  On 12/19 we left a moderate bearish formation above.  I would NOTE: The trade below 5136-4993 projects this downward $2.270 minimum, $4.700 (+) maximum—the maximum of which could be seen within another 1.5 month’s time.  We have traded $2.652 lower.  On a shorter-term basis:  The trade below 3016 (-2.5 tics per/hour) has brought in 675 tics of the pressure warned about.   Decent trade below 2398-93 will project this downward 240 tics (+); but if we break below here decently and back above decently, look for decent short covering.    

 

Commodities trading involves a substantial degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Michael Moor does not guarantee profits and is not responsible for any trading losses of subscribers. No representation is made, stated or implied, that any investor will achieve results, profits, or losses, even remotely similar to hypothetical results. Past performance is by no means indicative of future results. Information provided in this newsletter is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any copy, reprint, broadcast, or distribution of this report of any kind is strictly prohibited without the express written consent of Michael Moor. Michael Moor may execute transactions in a proprietary trading account that may be consistent or inconsistent with the contents of the newsletter. The content, statements, and viewpoints expressed in this publication are those of Michael Moor solely in his individual capacity and are not attributable to any person or entity other than Michael Moor

 

S&P 500, Energy, Gold, and Bitcoin Futures Overview from Mooranalytics.com for the week beginning 1/30/23

 S&P 500, Energy, Gold, and Bitcoin Futures Overview from Mooranalytics.com for 1/30/23

S&P 500 

On a higher timeframe basis:  On 1/18/22 the break below the 4629.25 line warned of decent pressure and negated the medium-term bullish trend we were in since 3/23/20.  On 8/22/22 we left a medium-term bearish reversal above, which has brought in 676.75 of pressure from the 4178.75  open.  These are ON HOLD.  On a lower timeframe basis:  I warned of possible exhaustion at 3531.25-04.75 which had the potential to trigger a bullish correction with a minimum target of 3793.00—we held this with a 3502.00 low and have bounced 678.00, taking the target out; but the higher timeframe minimum target is 4190.50—we came just shy of this with a 4180.00 high.  I warned if the 4180.00 high held, it would likely start a bearish correction to exceed 224.00 from the high—we have seen 391.50.  This is ON HOLD.   The trade above 3851.94 (-.37 per/hour) warned of renewed strength—we have seen 257.25.  The trade above 3874.02(-42 per/hour) has brought in 235.25 of strength.  These are OFF HOLD.  On a lower timeframe basis:  We held 3964.15-54.00 exhaustion with a 3963.25 low and rallied 146.00.   We came shy of exhaustion I had listed on the upside at 4117.75 with a 4109.25 high and rolled over, although I did not have a sell suggestion against this.  Decent trade below 3952.39 (+.28 per/hour starting at 9:30am) will warn of decent pressure for 162.00 (+), but it would be preferable to see a bounce off of this line before breaking below it added credibility.  If we break below here decently and back above decently, look for decent strength.

 

Gold 

On a higher timeframe basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 warned of renewed strength.  We have seen $905.5.  The break above $1,347.0 projected this upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum.  We have attained $744.2.  These are OFF HOLD.  We held major exhaustion at $2,071.6-93.2 with a $2,089.2 high and rolled over $46.7.  We rolled over from $2,079.6 for $456.6. These are ON HOLD.  On a lower timeframe basis:  The break above $1,641.2 (+1 tic per/hour) has brought in $302.6 of strength.  The solid trade above $1,679.5 (-1 tic per/hour) put this above a major formation --we are projected upward to $80 minimum.  We have attained $264.3 so far.  The break above $1,769.4 has brought in $174.4 of strength.  The break above $1,860.0 warned of renewed strength—we have seen $83.8.  These are ON HOLD.  The failure below $1,959.6 (+.5 of a tic per/hour) warned of pressure—we attained $26.6 in the (J) equivalent to that of (G).   

 

Bitcoin

On a higher timeframe basis: The rollover on 11/10/21 put this into a bearish trend.  I warned the selloff should exceed $13,000 from the high of $69,355—we have seen $54,430 of this.  We held exhaustion on a bullish correction of the move down at $59,545 and rolled over $44,620.  We have come off $36,080 from the $51,005 close. On a lower timeframe basis:  The trade below $34,830 put this below a significant bearish formation that projected this downward $13,000 minimum, $35,000 (+) maximum.  We have attained $19,905.  We held exhaustion at $25,265-495 with a $25,270 high and rolled over $10,345.  These are ON HOLD.  The break back above $16,275-60 has brought in $7,805 of strength.  The trade above $17,245 (+3 per/hour) warns of continued higher trade—we have seen $6,835. The trade above $17,935 has brought in $6,145 of strength.  Trade above $25,270-350 will be an additional sign of strength.  Decent trade below $23,435 (+16 per/hour) will put this below a steep formation that will warn of pressure; but if we break below decently and back above decently, look for decent short covering.  Trade below $21,795-400 will warn of pressure. 

 

Crude Oil (WTI) 

 On a macro basis:  On 4/29/20 we left a bullish reversal below—we have seen $115.13 from that open at $15.37 in the (N). We took out a major trendline at $55.15, which warned of significant strength. We have seen $75.35.  The break above $57.45-8.02 projected this upward $56 minimum, $89 (+) maximum. We attained $72.48.  These are OFF HOLD.  On a shorter-term basis:  Trade below $119.15 brought in $49.07 of pressure. The trade below $111.00 brought in $40.92 of pressure. The trade below $97.18 projected this down $8.30 (+) maximum. These are OFF HOLD.   We held exhaustion below with a $70.31 low and bounced $12.35.  The trade above $79.07 projects this upward $7.20 minimum, $24.60 (+) maximum; but if we break back below decently, look for decent pressure—this will come in at $76.95 today.  These are ON HOLD.  The trade below $80.58 (+2.5 tics per/hour) warned of pressure--we finally rolled over Friday.  Decent trade above $80.51-61 (+1.2 tics per/hour) will warn of decent strength.  Decent trade above $81.97-2.06 (-.3 of a tic per/hour) will project this upward $3.30 minimum, $8.00 (+) maximum.

 

Natural Gas (G)

On a higher timeframe basis:  The failure back below 8440 brought in $5.760 of pressure (in previous contracts).  The trade below 8208 warned of decent pressure.  We attained $5.528 so far.  I warned decent trade below 7188 would be a renewed sign of weakness—we came off  $4.508 tics.  On 12/19 we left a moderate bearish formation above.  I would NOTE: The trade below 5136-4993 projects this downward $2.270 minimum, $4.770 (+) maximum, which could be seen within 3 months’ time—we have traded $2.313 lower.  On a shorter-term basis:  The trade below 3016 (-2.5 tics per/hour) has brought in 336 tics of the pressure warned about.   A maintained gap higher will leave a minor bullish reversal below.  Decent trade back above where this comes in at 2818 (-2.5 tics per/hour starting at 8:00am) should bring in decent strength.  Decent trade above 2902 (-.7 of a tic per/hour starting at 8:00am) should bring in additional strength.  I would note that we are holding possible exhaustion below at 2592-83 with a 2612 low, and have bounced 133 tics.

 

 

Commodities trading involves a substantial degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Michael Moor does not guarantee profits and is not responsible for any trading losses of subscribers. No representation is made, stated or implied, that any investor will achieve results, profits, or losses, even remotely similar to hypothetical results. Past performance is by no means indicative of future results. Information provided in this newsletter is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any copy, reprint, broadcast, or distribution of this report of any kind is strictly prohibited without the express written consent of Michael Moor. Michael Moor may execute transactions in a proprietary trading account that may be consistent or inconsistent with the contents of the newsletter. The content, statements, and viewpoints expressed in this publication are those of Michael Moor solely in his individual capacity and are not attributable to any person or entity other than Michael Moor

 

Mid-Week Market Update from Mooranalytics.com

 S&P 500 (H)

On a higher timeframe basis:  On 1/18/22 the break below the 4629.25 line warned of decent pressure and negated the medium-term bullish trend we were in since 3/23/20.  On 8/22/22 we left a medium-term bearish reversal above, which has brought in 676.75 of pressure from the 4178.75  open.  These are ON HOLD.  On a lower timeframe basis:  I warned of possible exhaustion at 3531.25-04.75 which had the potential to trigger a bullish correction with a minimum target of 3793.00—we held this with a 3502.00 low and have bounced 678.00, taking the target out; but the higher timeframe minimum target is 4190.50—we came just shy of this with a 4180.00 high this morning.  These are OFF HOLD.   I warned if the 4180.00 high held, it would likely start a bearish correction to exceed 224.00 from the high—we have seen 391.50.  This is ON HOLD.   The trade above 3851.94 (-.37 per/hour) warned of renewed strength—we have seen 219.50.  The trade above 3874.02(-42 per/hour) has brought in 161.25 of strength.  We are in a lower/medium-time frame bull structure.   Today has a good likelihood of seeing range expansion.   

Gold (G)

On a higher timeframe basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 warned of renewed strength.  We have seen $905.5.  The break above $1,347.0 projected this upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum.  We have attained $744.2.  These are OFF HOLD.  We held major exhaustion at $2,071.6-93.2 with a $2,089.2 high and rolled over $46.7.  We rolled over from $2,079.6 by $456.6. These are ON HOLD.  On a lower timeframe basis:  The break above $1,641.2 (+1 tic per/hour) has brought in $290.6 of strength.  The solid trade above $1,679.5 (-1 tic per/hour) put this above a major formation --we are projected upward of $80 minimum.  We have attained $252.3 so far.  The break above $1,769.4 has brought in $162.4 of strength.  The break above $1,860.0 warned of renewed strength—we have seen $71.8.  I warned we took out exhaustion at $1,907.1-23.3, opening up the upside to higher trade—we traded $8.5 higher before rolling over.  Decent trade below $1,886.1 (+1 tic per/hour starting at 5:00am) should bring in decent pressure.   

Bitcoin

On a higher timeframe basis: The rollover on 11/10/21 put this into a bearish trend.  I warned the selloff should exceed $13,000 from the high of $69,355—we have seen $54,430 of this.  We held exhaustion on a bullish correction of the move down at $59,545 and rolled over $44,620.  We have come off $36,080 from the $51,005 close. On a lower timeframe basis:  The trade below $34,830 put this below a significant bearish formation that projected this downward $13,000 minimum, $35,000 (+) maximum.  We have attained $19,905.  We held exhaustion at $25,265-495 with a $25,270 high and rolled over $10,345.  These are ON HOLD.  The break back above $16,275-60 has brought in $5,450 of strength.  The trade above $17,245 (+3 per/hour) warns of continued higher trade—we have seen $4,480. The trade above $17,935 has brought in $3,790 of strength.  Trade below $20,690-80 will warn of pressure, but will also put this down in the gap.

Crude Oil (WTI) (H)

 On a macro basis:  On 4/29/20 we left a bullish reversal below—we have seen $115.13 from that open at $15.37 in the (N). We took out a major trendline at $55.15, which warned of significant strength. We have seen $75.35.  The break above $57.45-8.02 projected this upward $56 minimum, $89 (+) maximum. We attained $72.48.  These are OFF HOLD.  On a shorter-term basis:  Trade below $119.15 brought in $49.07 of pressure. The trade below $111.00 brought in $40.92 of pressure. The trade below $97.18 projected this down $8.30 (+) maximum. These are ON HOLD.   We held exhaustion below with a $70.31 low and bounced $11.86.  We held exhaustion at $72.93 with a $72.74 low, which I said had the potential to start a multi-week bull structure, and bounced $9.71.  The trade above $79.07 projects this upward $8.10 minimum, $25.50 (+) maximum; but if we break back below decently, look for decent pressure—this will come in at $78.46 today.  The trade above $80.00 (-.5 of a tic per/hour) also projects this higher; but if we fail back below decently, look for decent pressure.  This will come in at $79.91 (-.5 of a tic per/hour starting at 8:00am).

Natural Gas (G)

On a higher timeframe basis:  The failure back below 8440 brought in 4920 tics of pressure (in previous contracts).  The trade below 8208 warned of decent pressure.  I warned decent trade below 7188 would be a renewed sign of weakness—we came off 3668 tics.   I would NOTE: The trade below 5136-4993 projects this downward $2.80 minimum, $5.30 (+) maximum, which could be seen within 3 month’s time—we have traded $1.690 lower.  These are ON HOLD.   If we break solidly back above 5102-247, this will warn of solid higher trade for weeks, likely toward 7800 (+).  On a shorter-term basis:  The trade above 3733 (-8 tics per/hour) warned of strength—we only saw initial strength before rolling over and traveling down above it, but this also warned the downside may wane temporarily, drift sideways, and then see higher trade (which is what we are seeing).  We are likely entering into a bullish correction/trend on a lower timeframe before (if) resuming lower trade.  We came just shy of exhaustion below at 3356 with a 3384 low, which I did not suggest buying against, as I had a fade suggestion around 3422 just above.  Decent trade above 3707 (-2.6 tics per/hour starting at 8:00am) should bring in decent strength; but if we break above here decently and back below decently, look for decent pressure. 

 

Commodities trading involves a substantial degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Michael Moor does not guarantee profits and is not responsible for any trading losses of subscribers. No representation is made, stated or implied, that any investor will achieve results, profits or losses, even remotely similar to hypothetical results. Past performance is by no means indicative of future results. Information provided in this newsletter is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any copy, reprint, broadcast, or distribution of this report of any kind is strictly prohibited without the express written consent of Michael Moor. Michael Moor may execute transactions in a proprietary trading account that may be consistent or inconsistent with the contents of the newsletter. The content, statements, and viewpoints expressed in this publication are those of Michael Moor solely in his individual capacity and are not attributable to any person or entity other than Michael Moor

Weekly Market Recap from Mooranalytics.com

 S&P 500 (H)

On a higher timeframe basis:  On 1/18/22 the break below the 4629.25 line warned of decent pressure and negated the medium-term bullish trend we were in since 3/23/20.  On 8/22/22 we left a medium-term bearish reversal above, which has brought in 676.75 of pressure from the 4178.75  open.  These are ON HOLD.  On a lower timeframe basis:  I warned of possible exhaustion at 3531.25-04.75 which had the potential to trigger a bullish correction with a minimum target of 3793.00—we held this with a 3502.00 low and have bounced 678.00, taking the target out; but the higher timeframe minimum target is 4190.50—we came just shy of this with a 4180.00 high.  These are ON HOLD.   I warned if the 4180.00 high held, it would likely start a bearish correction to exceed 224.00 from the high—we have seen 391.50.  This is ON HOLD.   The trade above 3851.94 (-.37 per/hour) warned of renewed strength—we have seen 205.75.  The trade above 3874.02(-42 per/hour) has brought in 147.50 of strength.  We are likely in a new lower/medium-timeframe bull structure, but have held lower timeframe exhaustion at 4023.50-30.50 with a 4021.50 high—I warned if this holds, it could facilitate a lower timeframe bearish correction against the move up, with a likely minimum target of 3939.75.   Decent trade below 3880.56 (+.28 per/hour starting at 9:30am) will project this downward.   

Gold (G)

On a higher timeframe basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 warned of renewed strength.  We have seen $905.5.  The break above $1,347.0 projected this upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum.  We have attained $744.2.  These are OFF HOLD.  We held major exhaustion at $2,071.6-93.2 with a $2,089.2 high and rolled over $46.7.  We rolled over from $2,079.6 for $456.6. These are ON HOLD.  On a lower timeframe basis:  The break above $1,641.2 (+1 tic per/hour) has brought in $271.7 of strength.  The trade above $1,667.8 (-.5 of a tic per/hour) has brought in $245.1. The solid trade above $1,679.5 (-1 tic per/hour) put this above a major formation --we are projected upward $80 minimum.  We have attained $233.4 so far.  We are in the third stretch of a higher timeframe bull structure.  The break above $1,769.4 has brought in $143.5 of strength.  The break above $1,860.0 warned of renewed strength—we have seen $52.9.  I warned of possible exhaustion to contend with on the way up at $1,907.1-23.3—we held this with a $1,906.5 high and rolled over $23.7, but are now testing the upper bounds of it.  Decent trade below $1,879.9 (+1 tic per/hour starting at 5:00am) should bring in decent pressure.   

Bitcoin

On a higher timeframe basis: The rollover on 11/10/21 put this into a bearish trend.  I warned the selloff should exceed $13,000 from the high of $69,355—we have seen $54,430 of this.  We held exhaustion on a bullish correction of the move down at $59,545 and rolled over $44,620.  We have come off $36,080 from the $51,005 close. On a lower timeframe basis:  The trade below $34,830 put this below a significant bearish formation that projected this downward $13,000 minimum, $35,000 (+) maximum.  We have attained $19,905.  We held exhaustion at $25,265-495 with a $25,270 high and rolled over $10,345.  We held exhaustion at $22,630 with a $22,875 high and rolled over $7,950.   These are ON HOLD.  The break back above $16,275-60 has brought in $2,780 of strength.  The trade above $17,245 (+3 per/hour) warns of continued higher trade—we have seen $1,810. The trade above $17,935 has brought in $1,120 of strength.  Trade back below $18,460-20 will warn of pressure.

Crude Oil (WTI) (G)

 On a macro basis:  On 4/29/20 we left a bullish reversal below—we have seen $115.13 from that open at $15.37 in the (N). We took out a major trendline at $55.15, which warned of significant strength. We have seen $75.35.  The break above $57.45-8.02 projected this upward $56 minimum, $89 (+) maximum. We attained $72.48.  These are OFF HOLD.  On a shorter-term basis:  Trade below $119.15 brought in $49.07 of pressure. The trade below $111.00 brought in $40.92 of pressure. The trade below $97.18 projected this down $8.30 (+) maximum. These are ON HOLD.   We held exhaustion below with a $70.31 low and bounced $11.19 into a lower timeframe bullish correction against the move down from $83.34.  This is OFF HOLD.  The trade above $76.60 warns of renewed strength.  We held exhaustion at $72.70 with a $72.46 low and bounced $6.70--this has the potential to start a multi-week bull structure.  Trade above $79.07 will project this upward by $8.40 minimum, and $25.80 (+) maximum.  A maintained gap lower will leave a minor bearish reversal above. Today has a good likelihood of seeing range expansion.

Natural Gas (G)

On a higher timeframe basis:  The failure back below 8440 brought in 4920 tics of pressure (in previous contracts).  The trade below 8208 warned of decent pressure.  I warned decent trade below 7188 would be a renewed sign of weakness—we came off 3668 tics.   I would NOTE: The trade below 5136-4993 projects this downward $2.80 minimum, $5.30 (+) maximum, which could be seen within 3 month’s time—we have traded $1.690 lower.  These are ON HOLD.   If we break solidly back above 5075-219, this will warn of solid higher trade for weeks, likely toward 7800 (+).  On a shorter-term basis:  The trade above 3733 (-8 tics per/hour) warned of strength.  We may have entered into a bullish correction against the move down from 6871.  I warned this went out poised for pressure before (if) resuming higher trade—we came off 75 tics before short covering off the low. 

Commodities trading involves a substantial degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Michael Moor does not guarantee profits and is not responsible for any trading losses of subscribers. No representation is made, stated or implied, that any investor will achieve results, profits or losses, even remotely similar to hypothetical results. Past performance is by no means indicative of future results. Information provided in this newsletter is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation with respect to the sale of purchase of any securities or commodities. Any copy, reprint, broadcast, or distribution of this report of any kind is strictly prohibited without the express written consent of Michael Moor. Michael Moor may execute transactions in a proprietary trading account that may be consistent or inconsistent with the contents of the newsletter. The content, statements, and viewpoints expressed in this publication are those of Michael Moor solely in his individual capacity and are not attributable to any person or entity other than Michael Moor

S&P 500, Energy, Gold, and Bitcoin Futures Overview from Mooranalytics.com for 1/10/23

 S&P 500 (H)

On a higher timeframe basis:  On 1/18/22 the break below the 4629.25 line warned of decent pressure and negated the medium-term bullish trend we were in since 3/23/20.  On 8/22/22 we left a medium-term bearish reversal above, which has brought in 676.75 of pressure from the 4178.75  open.  These are ON HOLD.  On a lower timeframe basis:  I warned of possible exhaustion at 3531.25-04.75 which had the potential to trigger a bullish correction with a minimum target of 3793.00—we held this with a 3502.00 low and have bounced 678.00, taking the target out; but the higher timeframe minimum target is 4190.50—we came just shy of this with a 4180.00 high this morning.  These are ON HOLD.   I warned if the 4180.00 high held, it would likely start a bearish correction to exceed 224.00 from the high—we have seen 391.50.  This is ON HOLD.   The trade above 3851.94 (-.37 per/hour) warned of renewed strength—we have seen 157.50.  The trade above 3874.02(-42 per/hour) has brought in 99.25 of strength.  However, this went out weak on the day and poised for pressure.    Decent trade below 3860.60 (+.28 per/hour starting at 9:30am) will project this downward.  Decent trade below 3839.54 (+19 per/hour) will also warn of decent pressure; but if we break below here decently and back above decently, look for decent short covering. 

 

Gold (G)

On a higher timeframe basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 warned of renewed strength.  We have seen $905.5.  The break above $1,347.0 projected this upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum.  We have attained $744.2.  These are OFF HOLD.  We held major exhaustion at $2,071.6-93.2 with a $2,089.2 high and rolled over $46.7.  We rolled over from $2,079.6 for $456.6. These are ON HOLD.  On a lower timeframe basis:  The break above $1,641.2 (+1 tic per/hour) has brought in $245.2 of strength.  The solid trade above $1,679.5 (-1 tic per/hour) put this above a major formation --we are projected upward $80 minimum.  We have attained $206.9 so far.  The trade above $1,752.1 (-.3 of a tic per/hour) has brought in $134.3 of the strength warned about.  We are in the third stretch of a higher timeframe bull structure.  I would be aware of areas of possible exhaustion to contend with on the way up at $1,907.1-23.3, which are both a combination of lower and higher timeframe exhaustion.  The break above $1,860.0 warned of renewed strength—we have seen $26.4.  Decent trade below $1,873.4 (+1 tic per/hour starting at 5:00am) should bring in decent pressure. 

 

Bitcoin

On a higher timeframe basis: The rollover on 11/10/21 put this into a bearish trend.  I warned the selloff should exceed $13,000 from the high of $69,355—we have seen $54,430 of this.  We held exhaustion on a bullish correction of the move down at $59,545 and rolled over $44,620.  We have come off $36,080 from the $51,005 close. On a lower timeframe basis:  The trade below $34,830 put this below a significant bearish formation that projected this downward $13,000 minimum, $35,000 (+) maximum.  We have attained $19,905.  We held exhaustion at $25,265-495 with a $25,270 high and rolled over $10,345.  We held exhaustion at $22,630 with a $22,875 high and rolled over $7,950.   The break below $18,065 (-5 tics per/hour) brought in $3,140 of the pressure warned about.  These are ON HOLD.  The break back above $16,275-60 has brought in $1,165 of strength.  The trade above 17244 (+3 per/hour) warns of continued higher trade. Decent trade back below where it comes in at 17303 (+3 per/hour starting at 6:00am) will negate the bias above.  Decent trade back below $16,564 (-1.6 per/hour starting at 6:00am) will warn of decent pressure.

 

Crude Oil (WTI) (G)

 On a macro basis:  On 4/29/20 we left a bullish reversal below—we have seen $115.13 from that open at $15.37 in the (N). We took out a major trendline at $55.15, which warned of significant strength. We have seen $75.35.  The break above $57.45-8.02 projected this upward $56 minimum, $89 (+) maximum. We attained $72.48.  These are ON HOLD.  On a shorter-term basis:  Trade below $119.15 brought in $49.07 of pressure. The trade below $111.00 brought in $40.92 of pressure. The trade below $97.18 projected this down $8.30 (+) maximum. These are OFF HOLD.   We held exhaustion below with a $70.31 low and bounced $11.19 into a lower timeframe bullish correction against the move down from $83.34.  This is ON HOLD.  We are in a bearish correction/trend against the move up from $70.31, with the last area of possible exhaustion (if it is a correction) coming in at $72.70—we basically held this with a $72.46 low and bounced $4.28--this has the potential to start a multi-week bull structure.  The decent trade below $76.79 projects this downward $4.70—we attained $4.33 before short covering of the low.  I noted we left a medium-term bearish reversal above Wednesday that also warned of pressure.  Decent trade above $76.60 will negate this and warn of renewed strength.  Trade above $79.98 will project this upward by $8.40 minimum, and $25.80 (+) maximum.

 

Natural Gas (G)

On a higher timeframe basis:  The failure back below 8440 brought in 4920 tics of pressure (in previous contracts).  The trade below 8208 warned of decent pressure.  I warned decent trade below 7188 would be a renewed sign of weakness—we came off 3668 tics.   I would NOTE: The trade below 5136-4993 projects this downward $2.80 minimum, $5.30 (+) maximum, which could be seen within 3 months’ time—we have traded $1.690 lower.  These are ON HOLD.   If we break solidly back above 5048-192, this will warn of solid higher trade for weeks, likely toward 7800 (+).  On a shorter-term basis:  The trade above 3733 (-8 tics per/hour) warned of strength.  Decent trade back below where this comes in at 3507 (-8 tics per/hour starting at 8:00am) should bring in decent pressure. 

For more from Mooranalytics visit Mooranalytics.com

Commodities trading involves a substantial degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Michael Moor does not guarantee profits and is not responsible for any trading losses of subscribers. No representation is made, stated or implied, that any investor will achieve results, profits or losses, even remotely similar to hypothetical results. Past performance is by no means indicative of future results. Information provided in this newsletter is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation with respect to the sale of purchase of any securities or commodities. Any copy, reprint, broadcast, or distribution of this report of any kind is strictly prohibited without the express written consent of Michael Moor. Michael Moor may execute transactions in a proprietary trading account that may be consistent or inconsistent with the contents of the newsletter. The content, statements, and viewpoints expressed in this publication are those of Michael Moor solely in his individual capacity and are not attributable to any person or entity other than Michael Moor

 

S&P 500, Energy, Gold, and Bitcoin Futures Overview from Mooranalytics.com for 1/3/23

 S&P 500 (H)

On a higher timeframe basis:  On 1/18/22 the break below the 4629.25 line warned of decent pressure and negated the medium-term bullish trend we were in since 3/23/20.  On 8/22/22 we left a medium-term bearish reversal above, which has brought in 676.75 of pressure from the 4178.75  open.  These are ON HOLD.  On a lower timeframe basis:  I warned of possible exhaustion at 3531.25-04.75 which had the potential to trigger a bullish correction with a minimum target of 3793.00—we held this with a 3502.00 low and have bounced 678.00, taking the target out; but the higher timeframe minimum target is 4190.50—we came just shy of this with a 4180.00 high this morning.  The decent trade back above 3589.00-8.25 has also brought in 591.00 of the decent strength we are looking for above.   I warned of an area of correction at 3647.50-32.75 that we may see a bounce out of—we held this with a 3641.50 low and bounced at 538.50.  The penetration above 3728.50 (-60 per/hour) has brought in 451.50 of strength. We held the exhaustion on the downside with a 3704.25 low and bounced 475.75. These are ON HOLD.   I warned if the 4180.00 high held, it would likely start a bearish correction to exceed 224.00 from the high—we have seen 391.50.  I noted the daily kind of sell-off we saw on 12/13 is rarely followed by strength in the ensuing days—we have come off 267.00 from the close at 4055.50.  The solid trade below 4047.50 I warned would bring in solid pressure, likely for days—we have seen 259.00 so far.  The trade below 3967.75 (+36 per/hour) projects this downward 175.00 (+)—we have seen 179.25 so far.  These are ON HOLD.   The trade above 3867.50 (-.37 per/hour starting at 9:30am) should bring in decent strength; but if we break back below decently, look for decent pressure.  Decent trade below 3827.32 (+.27 per/hour starting at 9:30am) will project this downward 80.00 (+); but if we break below here decently and back above decently, look for decent short covering.  There are levels of possible exhaustion to contend at 3776.00-61.00 and 3647.25-00. 

Gold (G)

On a higher timeframe basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 warned of renewed strength.  We have seen $905.5.  We held an exhaustion within this at $1,275.6-$1,269.0 with a $1,274.6 low and rallied $814.6.  The break above $1,347.0 projected this upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum.  We have attained $744.2.  We held another exhaustion within this at $1,416.0-$1,413.7 with a $1,412.1 low and rallied $676.9. On 4/2 we left a bullish reversal below.  We have seen $470.7.  These are ON HOLD.  We held major exhaustion at $2,071.6-93.2 with a $2,089.2 high and rolled over $46.7.  We rolled over from $2,079.6 for $456.6. These are ON HOLD.  On a lower timeframe basis:  The break above $1,641.2 (+1 tic per/hour) has brought in $215.4 of strength.  The trade above $1,667.8 (-.5 of a tic per/hour) projects this upward $50 (+).  We have attained $188.8. On 11/4 we left a minor bullish reversal below—we have seen $203.9 from the open at $1,652.7.   The solid trade above $1,679.5 (-1 tic per/hour) put this above a major formation --we are projected upward $80 minimum.  We have attained $177.1 so far.  The trade above $1,716.6  (-.3 of a tic per/hour) has brought in $140.0 of higher trade.  The trade above $1,752.1 (-.3 of a tic per/hour) has brought in $104.5 of the strength warned about.  We are in a third stretch of a new, lower timeframe bull structure, and taking out $1,806.0 also put this in a third stretch of a higher timeframe bull structure as well.  The break above $1,769.4 has brought in $87.2 of strength.  I would be aware of areas of possible exhaustion to contend with on the way up at $1,850.8 and $1,907.1-23.3, which are both a combination of lower and higher timeframe exhaustion. 

 

Bitcoin

On a higher timeframe basis: The roll over on 11/10/21 put this into a bearish trend.  I warned the selloff should exceed $13,000 from the high of $69,355—we have seen $54,430 of this.  The trade below $63,285 (+15 per/hour) has brought in $48,360 of the pressure warned about below.  The decent trade below $61,890 (+15 per/hour) has brought in $46,965 of the pressure warned about below.  We held exhaustion on a bullish correction of the move down at $59,545 and rolled over $44,620.  We have come off $36,080 from the $51,005 close. On a lower timeframe basis:  The trade below $45,920 brought in $30,995 of pressure.  The trade below $43,140 warned of additional pressure.  We have seen $28,215.  The failure below $40,895 brought in $25,970 of renewed weakness.  The failure below $38,160 warned of decent pressure—we have seen $23,235 of a $12,000 (+) maximum.  The trade below $34,830 put this below a significant bearish formation that projected this downward $13,000 minimum, $35,000 (+) maximum.  We have attained $19,905.  On 5/9 we also left an additional significant bearish formation above, which warned of lower trade for weeks.  The trade below $30,115 has brought in $15,190 of pressure.  The trade below $27,275 has brought in $12,350 of pressure. We held exhaustion at $25,265-495 with a $25,270 high and rolled over $10,345.  We held exhaustion at $22,630 with a $22,875 high and rolled over $7,950.   We held exhaustion above at $21,200-350 with a $21,400 high and rolled over $6,475.  The trade below $20,445 (+6 per/hour) projected this downward $1,050 (+).  We attained $5,520.  The break below $18,065 (-5 tics per/hour) brought in $3,140 of the pressure warned about.  The trade below $17,082 (-1.6 tics per/hour) has brought in $992 of pressure.  The trade below $16,809 (+3 tics per/hour) projects this downward $900 (+)—we have attained $719 of this.  The trade below $16,669 (+3 per/hour) also warned of decent pressure—we have seen $579 of this; but if we break back above decently, look for decent short covering.  This will come in at $16,923 (+3 per/hour starting at 6:00am).  However, the break below $16,275-60 and back above is currently bringing in short covering.

 

Crude Oil (WTI) (G)

We settled in a bull leg.  Settlement below $79.56 will start this in a new bear leg.  On a macro basis:  On 4/29/20 we left a bullish reversal below—we have seen $115.13 from that open at $15.37 in the (N). On 5/5/20 we left a medium-term bullish reversal below. We have seen $107.05 from $23.45. We held exhaustion with a $34.04 low and rallied $96.46. The trade above $45.21 warned of renewed strength—we have seen $85.29 of this. The break above $47.92 has brought in $82.58 of the strength warned about above. The trade above $52.24 has brought in $78.26 of the strength warned about above. We took out a major trendline at $55.15, which warned of significant strength. We have seen $75.35.  The break above $57.45-8.02 projected this upward $56 minimum, $89 (+) maximum. We attained $72.48.  The trade above $59.50 brought in $71.00 of strength. We have seen $61.02 from $69.48.   The trade above $69.70 has brought in $60.80.  The trade above $71.36 attained $59.14.  These are ON HOLD.  On a shorter-term basis:  Trade below $119.15 brought in $49.07 of pressure. Trade below $115.90 projected this downward $8.85 (+). We attained $45.82. We held corrective exhaustion at $114.05 and rolled over $43.97. The trade below $111.00 brought in $40.92 of pressure. The trade below $105.73 brought in $35.65 of pressure. The trade below $104.48 projected this down $17.40 (+) maximum. We attained $34.40. The trade below $99.24 brought in $29.16 of pressure. The trade below $97.18 projected this down $8.30 (+) maximum. We attained $27.58. We held exhaustion at $97.66 and rolled over $27.58.  The trade below $95.76-40 brought in $25.32 of pressure.  We held exhaustion with a $92.58 high and rolled over $22.50.  These are OFF HOLD.   We held exhaustion below with a $70.31 low and bounced $11.19 into a lower timeframe bullish correction against the move down from $83.34.  The maintained gap higher on 12/13 was also a sign of bullishness.  The trade above $76.64 (-1.8 tics per/hour) brought in $4.86 of strength.  These are ON HOLD.  The trade below $78.36 (+3 tics per/hour) only brought in $1.57 before short covering back above, and then failing the line. We are now likely in a bearish correction/trend against the move up from $70.31.

 

Natural Gas (G)

We settled in a bear leg.  Settlement above 4980 will start this in a bull leg.  On a higher timeframe basis:  I noted the week of April 26^th, 2021, we also broke back above a significant formation on the Weekly charts at 2779 that warned of continued strength in general—we have seen 7251 tics of this.  The trade above 2896 (+.5 of a tic per/hour) brought in 7134 tics of the continued strength we were looking for above.  We held exhaustion at 2910-894 with a 2914 low and rallied for 7116 tics.  We left a medium-term bullish reversal below on 6/1 that warned of renewed strength for days/weeks.  We have seen 6963 tics from 3067 so far.  The trade above 3108-09 attained 6921 tics.  The trade above 3304 brought in 6726 tics of strength.   On 2/15 we left a moderate bullish formation below that warned of higher trade for days—we saw 5438 tics from the 4592 close.  These are ON HOLD.  On a shorter-term basis:  The failure back below 8440 brought in 4424 tics of pressure (in previous contracts).  The trade below 8208 warned of decent pressure.  We attained 4192 tics so far (in previous contracts).  I warned decent trade below 7550 would be a renewed sign of weakness—we came off 3172 tics.  On 12/19 we left a moderate bearish formation above.  The trade below 5210 (+1 tic per/hour) has brought in decent pressure.  I would NOTE: The trade below 5136-4993 last week projects this downward $2.80 minimum, $5.30 (+) maximum, which could be seen within 3 months’ time.  If we break solidly back above where this comes in this week at 5021-164, this will warn of solid higher trade for weeks, likely toward 7800 (+), although this is not a projection per se.

For more from Mooranalytics visit Mooranalytics.com

Commodities trading involves a substantial degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Michael Moor does not guarantee profits and is not responsible for any trading losses of subscribers. No representation is made, stated or implied, that any investor will achieve results, profits or losses, even remotely similar to hypothetical results. Past performance is by no means indicative of future results. Information provided in this newsletter is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation with respect to the sale of purchase of any securities or commodities. Any copy, reprint, broadcast or distribution of this report of any kind is strictly prohibited without the express written consent of Michael Moor. Michael Moor may execute transactions in a proprietary trading account that may be consistent or inconsistent with the contents of the newsletter. The content, statements, and viewpoints expressed in this publication are those of Michael Moor solely in his individual capacity and are not attributable to any person or entity other than Michael Moor

Bitcoin Signalling Major Risk Off Trade?

A look at the relationship between bitcoin returns and other asset class returns over the last year throws up some interesting details. There is a weak inverse relationship between bitcoin returns and the 10 year bond yield changes but the relationship between other asset class returns and bitcoin returns is not statistically significant. This suggests a continued melt down in bitcoin is a precursor to higher bond yields which could trigger a move out of risky assets:

Bitcoin Returns Vs Other Asset Class Returns	Correlation	Significance
S & P 500	0.156	0.273
Ten Year Bond Yield	-0.340	0.015
Euro	0.034	0.813
Gold	0.047	0.743
Copper	-0.160	0.261
Crude	-0.180	0.207

A look at the relationship of bitcoin itself with other asset classes over the last year reveals some additional info. We can see that bitcoin shows a strong positive relationships with most asset classes and the ten year bond yield and a strong negative relationship with copper. This suggests that the recent sell off in bitcoin could be a precursor to a major risk off trade:

Bitcoin Vs Other Asset Classes	Correlation	Significance
S & P 500	0.860	0.000
Ten Year Bond Yield	0.530	0.000
Euro	0.673	0.000
Gold	0.476	0.000
Copper	-0.879	0.000
Crude Oil	0.800	0.000

The Most Important Crowded Trade of All?

We have recently witnessed or are about to witness the implosion of a series of crowded trades namely long bitcoin, long Index ETF's and short volatility. The most important crowded trade of all is the dollar carry trade and this has been in vogue since the early 1980's. However the dollar appears to have broken out of its long term down trend line in the last 8 years post the great recession of 2008 though reluctantly so. When the real up move in the dollar occurs which is imminent look for massive carry trade liquidation and a rout in risky assets such as stocks, commodities and emerging market currencies:

Bitcoin 2017 Vs Home Builders 2008 Vs Nasdaq 2000

Most periods of excessive booms end with speculative busts. The dotcom bust of 2000 produced a recession so did the housing bust of 2008. Today's poster child seems to be bitcoin. Just as the internet was here to stay back in 2000 so is block chain technology today. However crypto currencies are trading at levels suggesting they could become reserve currencies of the world replacing the dollar and that implies a reset on short order. It's never different and always the same:

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the S & P 500 in relation to the Dax and gold in relation to bitcoin: