S&P 500 (H)
On a higher timeframe basis: On 1/18/22 the break below the 4629.25 line warned of decent
pressure and negated the medium-term bullish trend we were in since
3/23/20. On 8/22/22 we left a
medium-term bearish reversal above, which has brought in 676.75 of pressure from
the 4178.75 open. These are ON HOLD. On a lower timeframe basis: I warned of possible exhaustion at
3531.25-04.75 which had the potential to trigger a bullish correction with a minimum target of 3793.00—we held this with a 3502.00 low and have bounced 678.00,
taking the target out; but the higher timeframe minimum target is 4190.50—we
came just shy of this with a 4180.00 high this morning. The decent trade back above
3589.00-8.25 has also brought in 591.00 of the decent strength we are looking
for above. I warned of an area of
correction at 3647.50-32.75 that we may see a bounce out of—we held this with a
3641.50 low and bounced at 538.50. The
penetration above 3728.50 (-60 per/hour) has brought in 451.50 of strength. We
held the exhaustion on the downside with a 3704.25 low and bounced 475.75. These
are ON HOLD. I warned if the 4180.00 high held, it would
likely start a bearish correction to exceed 224.00 from the high—we have seen
391.50. I noted the daily kind of
sell-off we saw on 12/13 is rarely followed by strength in the ensuing days—we
have come off 267.00 from the close at 4055.50.
The solid trade below 4047.50 I warned would bring in solid pressure,
likely for days—we have seen 259.00 so far.
The trade below 3967.75 (+36 per/hour) projects this downward 175.00
(+)—we have seen 179.25 so far. These
are ON HOLD. The trade above 3867.50 (-.37 per/hour starting
at 9:30am) should bring in decent strength; but if we break back below
decently, look for decent pressure.
Decent trade below 3827.32 (+.27 per/hour starting at 9:30am) will
project this downward 80.00 (+); but if we break below here decently and back
above decently, look for decent short covering.
There are levels of possible exhaustion to contend at 3776.00-61.00 and
3647.25-00.
Gold (G)
On a higher timeframe basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break
above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $905.5. We held an exhaustion within this at
$1,275.6-$1,269.0 with a $1,274.6 low and rallied $814.6. The break above $1,347.0 projected this
upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum. We
have attained $744.2. We held another
exhaustion within this at $1,416.0-$1,413.7 with a $1,412.1 low and rallied
$676.9. On 4/2 we left a bullish reversal below. We have seen $470.7. These are ON HOLD. We
held major exhaustion at $2,071.6-93.2 with a $2,089.2 high and rolled over
$46.7. We rolled over from $2,079.6 for
$456.6. These are ON HOLD. On
a lower timeframe basis: The break
above $1,641.2 (+1 tic per/hour) has brought in $215.4 of strength. The trade above $1,667.8 (-.5 of a tic per/hour) projects this upward $50
(+). We have attained $188.8. On 11/4 we
left a minor bullish reversal below—we have seen $203.9 from the open at
$1,652.7. The solid trade above
$1,679.5 (-1 tic per/hour) put this above a major formation --we are projected
upward $80 minimum. We have attained $177.1
so far. The trade above $1,716.6 (-.3 of a tic per/hour) has brought in $140.0
of higher trade. The trade above
$1,752.1 (-.3 of a tic per/hour) has brought in $104.5 of the strength warned
about. We are in a third stretch of a
new, lower timeframe bull structure, and taking out $1,806.0 also put this in a
third stretch of a higher timeframe bull structure as well. The break above $1,769.4 has brought in $87.2
of strength. I would be aware of areas
of possible exhaustion to contend with on the way up at $1,850.8 and
$1,907.1-23.3, which are both a combination of lower and higher timeframe
exhaustion.
Bitcoin
On a higher timeframe basis: The roll over on 11/10/21 put this
into a bearish trend. I warned the
selloff should exceed $13,000 from the high of $69,355—we have seen $54,430 of
this. The trade below $63,285 (+15
per/hour) has brought in $48,360 of the pressure warned about below. The decent trade below $61,890 (+15 per/hour)
has brought in $46,965 of the pressure warned about below. We held exhaustion on a bullish correction of
the move down at $59,545 and rolled over $44,620. We have come off $36,080 from the $51,005
close. On a lower timeframe basis: The trade below $45,920 brought in $30,995 of
pressure. The trade below $43,140 warned
of additional pressure. We have seen
$28,215. The failure below $40,895
brought in $25,970 of renewed weakness.
The failure below $38,160 warned of decent pressure—we have seen $23,235
of a $12,000 (+) maximum. The trade below
$34,830 put this below a significant bearish formation that projected this
downward $13,000 minimum, $35,000 (+) maximum.
We have attained $19,905. On 5/9
we also left an additional significant bearish formation above, which warned of
lower trade for weeks. The trade below
$30,115 has brought in $15,190 of pressure.
The trade below $27,275 has brought in $12,350 of pressure. We held
exhaustion at $25,265-495 with a $25,270 high and rolled over $10,345. We held exhaustion at $22,630 with a $22,875
high and rolled over $7,950. We held
exhaustion above at $21,200-350 with a $21,400 high and rolled over
$6,475. The trade below $20,445 (+6
per/hour) projected this downward $1,050 (+).
We attained $5,520. The break
below $18,065 (-5 tics per/hour) brought in $3,140 of the pressure warned
about. The trade below $17,082 (-1.6
tics per/hour) has brought in $992 of pressure.
The trade below $16,809 (+3 tics per/hour) projects this downward $900
(+)—we have attained $719 of this. The
trade below $16,669 (+3 per/hour) also warned of decent pressure—we have seen
$579 of this; but if we break back above decently, look for decent short
covering. This will come in at $16,923
(+3 per/hour starting at 6:00am). However,
the break below $16,275-60 and back above is currently bringing in short
covering.
Crude Oil
(WTI) (G)
We settled in a bull leg. Settlement below $79.56 will start this in a
new bear leg. On a macro
basis: On 4/29/20 we left a bullish
reversal below—we have seen $115.13 from that open at $15.37 in the (N). On
5/5/20 we left a medium-term bullish reversal below. We have seen $107.05 from
$23.45. We held exhaustion with a $34.04 low and rallied $96.46. The trade
above $45.21 warned of renewed strength—we have seen $85.29 of this. The break
above $47.92 has brought in $82.58 of the strength warned about above. The
trade above $52.24 has brought in $78.26 of the strength warned about above. We
took out a major trendline at $55.15, which warned of significant strength. We
have seen $75.35. The break above $57.45-8.02 projected this
upward $56 minimum, $89 (+) maximum. We attained $72.48. The trade above $59.50 brought in $71.00
of strength. We have seen $61.02
from $69.48. The trade above $69.70 has
brought in $60.80. The trade above
$71.36 attained $59.14. These are ON HOLD. On a
shorter-term basis: Trade below
$119.15 brought in $49.07 of pressure. Trade below $115.90 projected this
downward $8.85 (+). We attained $45.82. We held corrective exhaustion at
$114.05 and rolled over $43.97. The trade below $111.00 brought in $40.92 of
pressure. The trade below $105.73 brought in $35.65 of pressure. The trade
below $104.48 projected this down $17.40 (+) maximum. We attained $34.40. The
trade below $99.24 brought in $29.16 of pressure. The trade below $97.18
projected this down $8.30 (+) maximum. We attained $27.58. We held exhaustion
at $97.66 and rolled over $27.58. The
trade below $95.76-40 brought in $25.32 of pressure. We held exhaustion with a $92.58 high and
rolled over $22.50. These are OFF HOLD. We held
exhaustion below with a $70.31 low and bounced $11.19 into a lower timeframe
bullish correction against the move down from $83.34. The maintained gap higher on 12/13 was also a
sign of bullishness. The trade above
$76.64 (-1.8 tics per/hour) brought in $4.86 of strength. These
are ON HOLD. The trade below $78.36
(+3 tics per/hour) only brought in $1.57 before short covering back above, and
then failing the line. We are now likely in a bearish correction/trend against
the move up from $70.31.
Natural
Gas (G)
We settled in a bear leg. Settlement above 4980 will start this in a
bull leg. On a higher timeframe basis: I
noted the week of April 26th, 2021, we also broke back above a
significant formation on the Weekly charts at 2779 that warned of continued
strength in general—we have seen 7251 tics of this. The trade above 2896 (+.5 of a tic per/hour)
brought in 7134 tics of the continued strength we were looking for above. We held exhaustion at 2910-894 with a 2914
low and rallied for 7116 tics. We left a
medium-term bullish reversal below on 6/1 that warned of renewed strength for
days/weeks. We have seen 6963 tics from
3067 so far. The trade above 3108-09
attained 6921 tics. The trade above 3304
brought in 6726 tics of strength. On 2/15 we left a moderate bullish formation below that
warned of higher trade for days—we saw 5438 tics from the 4592 close. These are ON HOLD. On a
shorter-term basis: The failure back below
8440 brought in 4424 tics of pressure (in previous contracts). The trade below 8208 warned of decent
pressure. We attained 4192 tics so far
(in previous contracts). I
warned decent trade below 7550 would be a renewed sign of weakness—we came off 3172
tics. On 12/19 we left a moderate
bearish formation above. The trade below
5210 (+1 tic per/hour) has brought in decent pressure. I would NOTE: The trade below 5136-4993 last
week projects this downward $2.80 minimum, $5.30 (+) maximum, which could be
seen within 3 months’ time. If we break
solidly back above where this comes in this week at 5021-164, this will warn of
solid higher trade for weeks, likely toward 7800 (+), although this is not a projection
per se.
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