About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Sunday, 13 May 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 14

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2728, 2.41%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	10807, 1.77%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3163, 2.34%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1321, 0.46%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	70.70, 1.41%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	3.11, 0.84%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1453, 5.60%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1947, -0.20%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	109.30, 0.19%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	10714, 3.31%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	35.81, 0.28%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.97%, 0.92%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	313, 88.55%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	12.65, -14.35%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	129	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2673, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2678, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2622, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10637, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10422, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10305, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	13.98, 5.49%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	67.39, 0.87%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	10	11
Bearish Indications	1	3
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish. The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia – RBA meeting minutes, Employment data, China – Industrial production, Japan – GDP, UK- Employment data, Euro – German GDP, German ZEW Economic sentiment, Draghi speech, CPI, U.S – Retail sales, Crude oil inventories, Canada – CPI, Retail sales

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2740 (up) and 2715 (down) on the S & P and 10900 (up) and 10700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.