About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday, 24 July 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 25

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2175, 0.61%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8541, 0.00%
Neutral**
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3013, -1.36%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1323, -1.07%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
44.19, -4.52%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.24, 0.11%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
718, -3.62%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.098, -0.53%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
106.20, 1.27%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
7966, -0.24%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
36.36, 0.69%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.57%, -1.51%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
1256, 9.06%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
12.67, -4.02%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2119, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2097, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2037, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8388, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8202, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7832, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
15.50, -0.90%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
67.15, 0.11%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
9

9
Bearish Indications
5
5
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The Sand P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish.
Markets are trying to break above resistance. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
Japan – Rate decision, CPI, Australia– CPI, UK – GDP,
Euro zone – German employment data, German CPI, Euro zone GDP,
Canada – GDP, US – Durable goods, Consumer confidence, FOMC rate decision, GDP, Personal consumption
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency.  The markets are trying to take out significant long term resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 after this rally concludes. The critical levels to watch are 2190 (up) and 2160 (down) on the S & P and 8600 (up) and 8450 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Monday, 18 July 2016

Chart of the Week - Deutsche Bank 2016 vs Lehman Brothers 2008

The Chart of the day is via Chris Vermeulen from the goldandoilguy.com and shows a comparison of the price performance of Lehman Brothers in 2008 to the current price performance of Deutsche Bank today. With a number of European and US banks having similar charts to Deutsche Bank and the bank index not confirming recent new highs in the broader market, once can all but wonder if a repeat of 2008 is on the cards:
deutsche bank

Sunday, 17 July 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 18

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2162, 1.49%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8541, 2.62%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3054, 2.22%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1338, -2.17%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
46.28, 2.57%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.23, 5.13%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
745, 5.97%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.103, -0.20%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
104.91, 4.39%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
7985, 3.93%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.11, 0.11%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.59%, 16.69%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
1152, 25.95%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
12.67, -4.02%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2099, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2086, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2032, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8311, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8134, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7814, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
15.64, 3.68%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
67.08, -0.08%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
12

12
Bearish Indications
2
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
Markets are trying to break above resistance. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
New Zealand – CPI, England – CPI,
Euro zone – ECB rate decision,
Canada – CPI, Retail sales
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


The Sand P 500 and the Nifty rallied above resistance last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency.  The Yen, gold and treasuries gave up some of the recent flight to safety. The markets are trying to take out significant long term resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 after this rally concludes. The critical levels to watch are 2180 (up) and 2150 (down) on the S & P and 8600 (up) and 8450 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.