About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Showing posts with label deutsche bank. Show all posts

Monday, 18 July 2016

Chart of the Week - Deutsche Bank 2016 vs Lehman Brothers 2008

The Chart of the day is via Chris Vermeulen from the goldandoilguy.com and shows a comparison of the price performance of Lehman Brothers in 2008 to the current price performance of Deutsche Bank today. With a number of European and US banks having similar charts to Deutsche Bank and the bank index not confirming recent new highs in the broader market, once can all but wonder if a repeat of 2008 is on the cards:

Thursday, 12 May 2016

Performance of Retailers and Global Financial Institutions - Parallels with 2008

An interesting article from John Rubino via SafeHaven that highlights parallels between the rapidly deteriorating performance of retailers and global financial institutions, very similar to that observed in 2008:

Interesting parallels between now and 2008 in the performance of key banking and retail stocks from Rajveer Rawlin

Tuesday, 16 February 2016

All is not Well with Global Financial Markets

It does appear that all is not as rosy as it used to be in the global financial market landscape:

First and foremost global shipping activity appears to have come to a screeching halt, as pointed out by Jeff Berwick via the Market Oracle and this likely has recessionary implications:

Secondly when a single bank's derivative exposure exceeds the GDP of a country or region you know you are bound to have problems as ETF daily news rightly points out the case of Deutsche Bank:

Thirdly as QuandaryFX points out via Seeking Alpha the S & P 500 starts turning down when manufacturing starts to turn down like we are seeing off late:

Last but not the least the Safehaven plunge into Gold,Treasuries & the Japanese yen is clearly taking hold as pointed out by Chris Vermeulen via CNA Finance:

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.