Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 18

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2162, 1.49%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	8541, 2.62%	Neutral**	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3054, 2.22%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1338, -2.17%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	46.28, 2.57%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.23, 5.13%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	745, 5.97%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.103, -0.20%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	104.91, 4.39%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	7985, 3.93%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	36.11, 0.11%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	1.59%, 16.69%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	1152, 25.95%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	12.67, -4.02%	Bullish	Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2099, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2086, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2032, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	8311, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	8134, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	7814, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	15.64, 3.68%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	67.08, -0.08%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	12	12
Bearish Indications	2	3
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish. Markets are trying to break above resistance. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	New Zealand – CPI, England – CPI, Euro zone – ECB rate decision, Canada – CPI, Retail sales
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The Sand P 500 and the Nifty rallied above resistance last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency.  The Yen, gold and treasuries gave up some of the recent flight to safety. The markets are trying to take out significant long term resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 after this rally concludes. The critical levels to watch are 2180 (up) and 2150 (down) on the S & P and 8600 (up) and 8450 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Chart of the Week - Historical Inflation View

The chart of the week is courtesy MarketWatch and shows inflation levels over time. We have been in a dis-inflationary phase for over 20 years now and could soon enter a deflationary spiral as record levels of quantitative easing (QE) have failed to spark an upthrust in inflation:

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 11

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2130, 1.28%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	8323, -0.06%	Neutral**	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	2988, 1.90%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1367, 1.67%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	45.12, -8.44%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.12, -4.39%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	703, 3.84%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.105, -0.80%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	100.45, -2.03%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	7683, 1.66%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	36.07, 1.52%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	1.37%, -6.18%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	915, 12.16%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	13.20, -10.63%	Bullish	Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2080, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2078, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2026, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	8217, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	8059, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	7799, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	15.08, -4.16%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	67.13, -0.09%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	12	12
Bearish Indications	4	4
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The Sand P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish. Markets are challenging resistance again. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	China – CPI, GDP, Australia – Employment data, England – BOE rate decision, U.S – Import price index, CPI, Retail sales, U. Mich. Consumer confidence, Canada – Rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The Sand P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency.  The Yen, gold and treasuries are indicating a flight to safety. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 after this rally concludes. The critical levels to watch are 2140 (up) and 2120 (down) on the S & P and 8400 (up) and 8250 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and

P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.