About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Sunday, 8 November 2015

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 9

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change / Significance	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2099, 0.95%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	7954,- 1.38%	Neutral**	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3590, 6.13%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1089, -4.62%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	44.52, -4.03%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.24, -3.15%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	631, -12.48%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.0743, -2.40%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	123.17, 2.07%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	8241, 1.39%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.33%, 8.46%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	503, 21.99%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	14.33, -4.91%	Bullish	Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2060, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	1997, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2063, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	8149, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	7988, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	8375, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	19.47, 8.91%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	66.06, 1.03%	Neutral	Bearish

Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	9	5
Bearish Indications	6	12
Outlook	Bullish	Bearish
Observation	The Sand P 500 was up and the Nifty significantly under performed last week. Indicators are bullish for the S & P but bearish for the Nifty. The Vix is still indicating complacency. Looking for a pull back soon.
On the Horizon	Australia – Employment data, China – Loan data, CPI, Euro Zone – German & Euro zone GDP, U.S – Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence.

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The US market was up last week while the Nifty sold off sharply. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week and the recent rally is on the verge of completion. The markets are likely to correct soon, with most emerging markets, and commodities already breaking down on a strong dollar and a hawkish FED. There will be more downside upcoming in the #Nifty and the S and P 500, with at least a retest of the lows for the S and P 500 near 1867 and Nifty near 7550 in the upcoming months. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Tuesday, 3 November 2015

Interesting Market News and Views from Global Financial Markets-5

As China's Stock Market Crashed, These Hedge Funds Rose 70% - Bloomberg | stock market | Scoop.it

From www.bloomberg.com - November 2, 3:32 PM

Sunday, 1 November 2015

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 2

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change / Significance	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2079, 0.20%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	8066,- 2.77%	Neutral**	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3383, -0.88%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1142, -1.92%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	46.39, 3.71%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.32, -1.38%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	721, -6.85%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1007, -0.07%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	120.61, -0.70%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	8128, -2.02%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.15%, 3.26%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	412, 10.55%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	15.07, 4.22%	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2034, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	1980, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2062, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	8172, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	8016, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	8375, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	17.88, 10.42%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	65.39, 0.58%	Neutral	Bearish

Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	5	2
Bearish Indications	8	13
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The Sand P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty significantly under performed last week. Indicators are bearish. The Vix is still indicating complacency. Looking for a top soon.
On the Horizon	Australia – RBA rate decision, New Zealand – Employment data, Canada - Employment data, U.K – Asset Purchases, BOE rate decision, U.S – ISM, Employment data.

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The US market was unchanged last week while the Nifty sold off sharply. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week and the recent bounce is on the verge of completion. The markets are likely top out soon, with most emerging markets and commodities already breaking down. There will be more& downside upcoming in the #Nifty and the S and P 500, with at least a retest of the lows for the S and P 500 near 1867 and Nifty near 7550 in the upcoming months. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P
500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US & Indian Stock Market for the Week Beginning November 2 https://t.co/IKMVh8dO30 pic.twitter.com/9ZKNGcl6LP
— samuelR (@RajveerRawlin) November 1, 2015

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.