|
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
|
S
& P 500
|
2787, 3.54%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Nifty
|
10227, -2.21%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bearish
|
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3307, 1.62%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Gold
|
1324, 0.05%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
WTIC
Crude
|
62.04, 1.29%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Copper
|
3.14, 0.37%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1201, 0.42%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Euro
|
1.2307, -0.09%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Dollar/Yen
|
106.77, 0.98%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Dow
Transports
|
10740, 3.94%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
36.09, 0.25%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
2.89%, 1.30%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
164, 1023.97%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
US
Vix
|
14.64, -25.27%
|
Bullish
|
Bearish
|
|
Skew
|
128
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2714, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2742, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2571, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
10420, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
10606, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
10140, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
|
India
Vix
|
14.52, 3.22%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
64.93, -0.39%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
10
|
6
|
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
1
|
6
|
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
|
||
|
On
the Horizon
|
New Zealand –
GDP, China – Industrial production,
Euro Zone – German ZEW economic
sentiment, CPI, Switzerland – SNB rate
decision, U.S – CPI, Retail sales,
Oil inventories, Canada – Poloz
speech
|
||
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
|
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
|
||
|
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
Image from marketwatch.com
The S and
P 500 rallied and the Nifty sharply under performed last week. Indicators are mixed
for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced
in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above
their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Divergences in
high yield and surging bond yields are flashing warning signs. An interest rate
shock can’t be ruled out. Indian market volatility is still below US market
volatility so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The
critical levels to watch are 2800 (up)
and 2775 (down) on the S & P
and 10300 (up) and 10150 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of
the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can
check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
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