|
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
|
S
& P 500
|
2691, -2.04%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Nifty
|
10458, -0.31%
|
Neutral
**
|
Neutral
|
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3255, -1.05%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Gold
|
1323, -0.52%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
WTIC
Crude
|
61.25, -3.62%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Copper
|
3.12, -2.74%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1167, 7.16%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Euro
|
1.2317, 0.18%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Dollar/Yen
|
105.73, -1.01%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Dow
Transports
|
10333, -2.32%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
36.00, -0.27%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
2.86%, -0.49%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
-18, 58.93%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
US
Vix
|
19.59, 18.80%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Skew
|
128
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2697, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2736, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2562, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
10529, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
10629, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
10120, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
|
India
Vix
|
14.07, -0.92%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
65.19, 0.54%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
3
|
3
|
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
10
|
11
|
|
|
Outlook
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
|
||
|
On
the Horizon
|
Australia –
Retail sales, GDP, RBA rate decision, Japan
– GDP, BOJ Rate decision, Euro Zone –
Italian elections, ECB rate decision, UK
– Services PMI, GDP, U.S – Oil inventories, ISM PMI, Employment
data, Canada – PMI, BOC rate decision,
Poloz speech, Employment data
|
||
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
|
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
|
||
|
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
Image from marketwatch.com
The S and
P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are bearish for the
upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully.
The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long
term averages from which corrections usually result. Divergences in high yield,
transports and surging bond yields are flashing warning signs. An interest rate
shock can’t be ruled out. Indian market volatility is below US market
volatility so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The
critical levels to watch are 2700 (up)
and 2680 (down) on the S & P
and 10550 (up) and 10400 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of
the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can
check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
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