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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 4 March 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 05

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2691, -2.04%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
10458, -0.31%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3255, -1.05%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1323, -0.52%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
61.25, -3.62%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.12, -2.74%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1167, 7.16%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.2317, 0.18%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
105.73, -1.01%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
10333, -2.32%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
36.00, -0.27%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.86%, -0.49%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse Summation Index
-18, 58.93%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
19.59, 18.80%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
128
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2697, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2736, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2562, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10529, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
10629, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
10120, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.07, -0.92%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
65.19, 0.54%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
3
3
Bearish Indications
10
11
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish.
The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – Retail sales, GDP, RBA rate decision, Japan – GDP, BOJ Rate decision, Euro Zone – Italian elections, ECB rate decision, UK – Services PMI, GDP,  U.S – Oil inventories, ISM PMI, Employment data, Canada – PMI, BOC rate decision, Poloz speech, Employment data
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals march 05
Image from marketwatch.com


The S and P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Divergences in high yield, transports and surging bond yields are flashing warning signs. An interest rate shock can’t be ruled out. Indian market volatility is below US market volatility so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The critical levels to watch are 2700 (up) and 2680 (down) on the S & P and 10550 (up) and 10400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.