Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2752, -1.24%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nifty
|
10195, -0.31%
|
Neutral
**
|
Neutral
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3270, -1.13%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Gold
|
1312, -0.88%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
62.41, 0.60%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Copper
|
3.11, -0.91%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1150, -4.25%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Euro
|
1.2296, -0.09%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dollar/Yen
|
106.04, -0.69%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dow
Transports
|
10684, -0.52%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
35.97, -0.33%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
2.85%, -1.59%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
283, 73.22%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
US
Vix
|
15.80, 7.92%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Skew
|
147
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2735, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2749, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2579, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
10380, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
10594, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
10161, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
15.22, 4.78%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
65.08, 0.23%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
6
|
3
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
9
|
12
|
|
Outlook
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
|
||
On
the Horizon
|
Australia –
RBA minutes, Employment data, New
Zealand – RBNZ rate decision, Euro
Zone – German ZEW economic sentiment, German PMI, German IFO business
climate index, UK – CPI,
Employment data, Retail sales, BOE rate decision, U.S – Home sales, Oil inventories, FOMC rate decision, Durable
goods, Canada – CPI, Retail sales,
Russia – Rate decision
|
||
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
|
||
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
Image from marketwatch.com
The S and
P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming
week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The
markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term
averages from which corrections usually result. Under performance in high yield and
other risk assets are flashing warning signs. An interest rate shock can’t be
ruled out. Indian market volatility is still below US market volatility so
there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The critical
levels to watch are 2765 (up) and 2740 (down)
on the S & P and 10300 (up) and 10100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the
above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check
out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
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