About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Showing posts with label stock market exchange. Show all posts

Monday 15 December 2014

Deflation to trigger junk bond rout?

The deflationary collapse of oil is clearly threatening to take down other risky asset classes with it, most notably of late the junk bond market
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)

the makings of a brand new financial crisis!

Thursday 4 December 2014

Collapsing Oil price flat out deflationary

The recent 40% decline in oil the past 6 months is flat out deflationary. Look at the popularly traded oil ETF. This taken together with the collapse in other industrial commodities has generated a major deflationary signal. The collapse in the Euro also lends further support to the deflationary theme emerging.
United States Oil ETF (USO)

The last time oil approached it's cost of production was just before the financial crisis of 2008. Just a matter of time before the collapse in gold, silver, copper, oil and other industrially sensitive commodities spreads to other risky asset classes like stocks.

Thursday 20 November 2014

Vix is warning trouble ahead?

While the S&P is at new highs
S&P 500 (^GSPC)

The Vix is not making new lows, on the other hand it is threatening to break out significantly higher
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)

This suggests the upcoming market sell off will be far worse than the October pull back.

Wednesday 12 November 2014

long bonds signalling onset of deflation?

30 yr long bond yields about to break below 3% in the U.S despite all the QE withdrawal talk confirming the onset of deflation. Chart courtesy yahoo finance.
Treasury Yield 30 Years (^TYX)

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.