About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Wednesday, 12 November 2014

long bonds signalling onset of deflation?

30 yr long bond yields about to break below 3% in the U.S despite all the QE withdrawal talk confirming the onset of deflation. Chart courtesy yahoo finance.
Treasury Yield 30 Years (^TYX)

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Economic Calendar

GMT-4		Event	Actual	Consensus
Thursday, Jun 19
24h	US	Juneteenth
07:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Rate Cut	3	2
07:00	UK	BoE Monetary Policy Summary
07:00	UK	BoE Interest Rate Decision	4.25%	4.25%
08:30	CA	Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM)	3.4%
19:01	UK	GfK Consumer Confidence		-20
Friday, Jun 20
02:00	UK	Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)		1.8%
02:00	UK	Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)		-0.5%
02:00	UK	Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.5%
02:00	UK	Retail Sales (YoY)		1.7%

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.