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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Showing posts with label deflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label deflation. Show all posts

Tuesday 6 October 2015

Interesting Market News and Views from global financial markets-1


1) George Soros Bets $1.3 Billion on Stock Market Crash

From www.youtube.com - October 5, 8:06 PM
In today's video, Christopher Greene of AMTV reports on George Soros and his massive put on the stock market.

 2) The stock market's crashing again. What should I do with my super? - The Guardian


The stock market's crashing again. What should I do with my super? - The Guardian | stock market | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com -October 5, 8:06 PM
There are ways to ensure your nest egg is not hit too hard in volatile times, and one is to be aware of how your super is tracking and how you can improve on it "





Short The S&P 500 - Seeking Alpha | stock market | Scoop.it

From seekingalpha.com - October 5, 8:02 PM
The unemployment rate is better than it's been in 67% of all months since 1948.With 64 straight months of employment gains, investors need to wake up the possibility that change is afoot.When employment..."


Spectre Of Deflation Returns To Eurozone - DailyForex.com | stock market | Scoop.it

From www.dailyforex.com - October 5, 8:02 PM
As fears go, deflation in the Eurozone is greatly overdone, in my opinion. Deflation is the mirror image of inflation and simply means that prices are falling, rather than rising.



5) 5 Technologies That Could Drive Solar Energy Growth for Decades -- The Motley Fool

5 Technologies That Could Drive Solar Energy Growth for Decades -- The Motley Fool | stock market | Scoop.it

From www.fool.com - October 5, 8:00 PM
The Motley Fool is a multimedia financial-services company that provides financial solutions for investors through various stock, investing, and personal finance products.

6) Top 5 Reasons To Fear A Stock Market Collapse

From www.youtube.com - October 5, 7:58 PM
BullishMoney | With poor results from the September 2015 Jobs Report, investors are fundamentally concerned about a potential stock market crash in the Dow ..."

Here are some more interesting market news and views.
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Friday 26 June 2015

Early Signs of a Deflationary Collapse?

Some interesting developments are playing out in long term charts that make me feel comprehensively bearish over the long term:

a) Firstly a massive rising wedge  has formed on the long term S and P 500 chart. This is much bigger than that observed in 2000 or 2008 and has started to break to the downside which could have profound consequences. A major bear market could ensue post the break. Chart courtesy StockTwits.com:

b) Secondly Margin Debt is at record levels and has eclipsed levels seen during the maniacal peaks of 2000 and 2008. Once the above rising wedge breaks you could have a rush for the exit triggered by margin calls. Chart courtesy advisorperspectives.com:
stock market today

c) Thirdly despite multiple dosages of Quantitative easing (#QE) from global central banks the velocity of money is below the levels observed during the Great Depression. This implies that changes in money supply will have little impact on the economy going forward. Further QE's are likely but won't really stimulate the global economy. Chart source armstrongeconomics.com.
velocity 1910-2010
The above developments taken together with ongoing bear markets in several key asset classes  make for a deflationary collapse increasingly likely in the not too distant future.

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Cash - 40%
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Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.