About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, ...

Ad

Sunday, 21 May 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 22

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2382, -0.38%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
9428, 0.29%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3091, 0.23%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1254, 2.11%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
50.67, 5.92%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.58, 2.28%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
956, -5.72%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.121, 2.57%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
111.26, -1.84%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
8879, -1.35%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
37.18, 0.24%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.25%, -3.85%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
467, -14.26%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
12.04, 15.77%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
131
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2388, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2370, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2257, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9356, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
9213, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8697, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
11.30, 6.35%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.50, 0.54%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
7

8
Bearish Indications
6
6
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 was down and the Nifty was up slightly last week. Indicators mildly bullish.
The market is repeatedly failing at resistance. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Japan – Kuroda speeches, CPI, UK – GDP, U.S – FOMC minutes, Trade balance, Durable goods, GDP, Canada – Rate decision, Euro Zone - Draghi speech
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals may 22


The S and P 500 was down and the Nifty was up last week. Signals are mildly bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. Market internals, the transports and commodities are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2390 (up) and 2370 (down) on the S & P and 9500 (up) and 9350 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


No comments:

Post a Comment

Offers

Stock Market News

World Indices


Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com

Trader Talk

An Amazing Forex Product

Market Insight

My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

See Our Pins

Trading Ideas

Forex Insight

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

India Market Insight

Refurbished MacBooks

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.