About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 14 May 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May15

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2391, -0.35%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
9401, 1.24%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3084, -0.63%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1228, 0.07%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
47.84, 3.50%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.52, -0.18%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
1014, 2.01%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.093, -0.65%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
113.32, 0.59%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
9001, -2.05%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
37.09, 0.43%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.34%, -0.72%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
545, -10.60%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
10.40, -1.61%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
130
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2380, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2369, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2252, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9271, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
9158, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8675, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
10.63, -11.35%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.16, -0.19%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
8

10
Bearish Indications
4
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 was down and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators mildly bullish.
The market is repeatedly failing at resistance. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Japan – GDP, Australia – Employment data, Euro Zone – Italy GDP, German ZEW survey, Euro Zone GDP, Draghi speech, UK – CPI, Canada - CPI
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals may 15



The S and P 500 was down and the Nifty was up last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. Market internals, the transports and commodities are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2400 (up) and 2380 (down) on the S & P and 9450 (up) and 9350 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. 

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Cash - 40%
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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.