About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 26 March 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 27

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2344, -1.44%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
9108, -0.57%
Neutral **
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3269, 0.99%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1249, 1.49%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
47.97, -2.72%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.63, -2.25%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1240, 5.80%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.080, 0. 70%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
111.27, -1.27%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
8929, -2.37%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
36.54, -0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.40%, -4.04%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
223, -30.55%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
12.96, 14.89%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
137
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2369, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2330, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2208, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9007, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8787, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8522, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
11.98, 1.05%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
65.38, -0.18%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
7

8
Bearish Indications
8
8
Outlook
Bearish
Neutral
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed.
The market is beginning a break down. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
China – PMI, Japan - CPI, Euro zone – German and Euro CPI, German employment data,
U.S – Trade balance, Consumer confidence, Janet Yellen Speech, GDP, Canada - GDP
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals march 27


The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Market internals, transports and commodities are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2360 (up) and 2330 (down) on the S & P and 9200 (up) and 9000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. 

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