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Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Saturday, 11 March 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 13

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2373, -0.44%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
8935, 0.42%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3213, -0.17%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1201, -2.05%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
48.49, -9.08%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.60, -3.75%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1064, 13.31%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.067, 0. 48%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
114.75, 0.67%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
9290, -2.13%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
36.33, -2.05%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.49%, 7.55%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
440, -42.78%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
11.66, 6.39%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2361, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2310, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2195, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8879, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8626, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8474, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.96, 4.53%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
66.46, -0.40%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
5

5
Bearish Indications
8
8
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 was down and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators are bearish.
The market is way over bought on sentiment. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Japan – Rate decision, Australia – Employment data, New Zealand – GDP, UK – BOE rate decision, Euro zone – ZEW survey, Switzerland – Rate decision,  
U.S – CPI, Retail sales, U. Mich. Consumer confidence, FOMC rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals march 13


The S and P 500 was down and the Nifty was up last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. Possible FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Market internals, transports and commodities are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2380 (up) and 2360 (down) on the S & P and 9000 (up) and 8850 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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