About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 26

Indicator Weekly Level / Change Implication for S & P 500 Implication for Nifty* ...

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Wednesday, 2 November 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 31(Intra Week Update)

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2098, -1.34%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
8526, -1.30%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3103, -0.05%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1308, 2.46%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
45.34, -6.90%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.23, 1.69%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
838, 5.01%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.111, 1.02%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
103.82, -0.32%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
8026, 0.09%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
35.75, -1.20%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.80%, -2.49%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
-170, -651.67%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
19.32, 19.33%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2137, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2151, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2081, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8649, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
8705, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8088, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
16.50, 12.63%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
66.73, -0.09%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty


Bullish Indications
6

6

Bearish Indications
7
8

Outlook
Bearish
Bearish

Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish. Markets are breaking down again. Time to tighten those stops.


On the Horizon
Australia – AIG service index indicator, UK – Brexit trigger ruling, BOE rate decision, US – FOMC rate decision, ISM data






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral



The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are slightly bearish for the upcoming week. Market momentum and breadth have been showing divergences for months now and sentiment indicators are still highly complacent and a big breakdown has likely started. Short term we are oversold but any oversold bounces may not last long. The critical levels to watch are 2110 (up) and 2090 (down) on the S & P and 8600 (up) and 8400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s stock market signals october 24 for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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