About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 6 November 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 7

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2085, -1.94%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
8434, -2.36%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3125, 0.68%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1305, 2.17%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
44.07, -9.51%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.27, 3.26%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
855, 7.14%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.114, 1.36%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
103.04, -1.60%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
8075, 0.71%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
35.82, -1.01%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.78%, -3.36%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
-278, -1163.73%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
22.51, 39.04%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2130, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2148, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2083, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8630, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
8700, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8092, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
16.85, 14.98%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
66.80, 0.01%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
8

7
Bearish Indications
8
10
Outlook
Neutral
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell hard last week. Indicators are mildly bearish.
Markets are oversold so a bounce is likely after which downside will resume. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
China – CPI, New Zealand – Rate decision,
US – U. Mich. Consumer confidence, US elections
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

s&p 500 rising wedge break


The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell hard last week. Signals are slightly bearish for the upcoming week. Market momentum and breadth have been showing divergences for months now and sentiment indicators are finally catching up to the downside and a big breakdown has likely started. Short term we are oversold and due a bounce. The critical levels to watch are 2095 (up) and 2175 (down) on the S & P and 8500 (up) and 8400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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