About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 2 October 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 3

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2168, 0.17%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
8611, -2.50%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3005, -0.96%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1317, -1.83%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
48.24, 8.45%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.21, 0.43%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
875, -7.01%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.124, 0.14%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
101.38, 0.39%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
8079, 1.79%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.72, 0.58%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.61%, -0.43%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse Summation Index
559, -2.11%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
13.29, 8.14%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2157, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2168, At
Neutral
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2064, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8783, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
8690, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
7996, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
17.18, 29.68%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
66.56, -0.21%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
5

4
Bearish Indications
5
8
Outlook
Neutral
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell hard last week. Indicators are tilting bearish.
Markets are challenging resistance again. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia - Rate decision, India – RBI rate decision, Canada - Employment data, U.S – ISM data, Employment data
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stocktwits charts


The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty sold off hard last week. Signals are switching to the bearish side for the upcoming week. Market momentum and breadth have been showing divergences for months now and sentiment indicators are still highly complacent and a big breakdown will likely start soon. It is interesting to see all risky assets suddenly moving together much like in 2008. This is setting us up for some serious downside ahead unless recent resistance gets taken out soon. The critical levels to watch are 2180 (up) and 2160 (down) on the S & P and 8700 (up) and 8550 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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