About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 26

Indicator Weekly Level / Change Implication for S & P 500 Implication for Nifty* ...

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Sunday, 15 May 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 16

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2047, -0.51%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
7815, 1.05%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2827, -2.96%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1274,-1.19%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
47.03, 5.54%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.08, -3.44%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
600, -4.91%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.138, -0.24%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
108.61, 1.43%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
7507, -2.99%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
34.80, 0.29%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.71%, -4.16%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
922, -13.35%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
15.04, 2.17%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2076, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2055, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2012, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7852, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
7664, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7816, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
17.00, 0.30%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Rupee
66.90, 0.44%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
4

5
Bearish Indications
10
9
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The Sand P 500 fell and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bearish.
Markets are breaking down from resistance. Time to tighten those stops as downside has resumed.
On the Horizon
Japan – GDP, Australia – Employment data, England – CPI, U.S – CPI, Canada - CPI
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


The Sand P 500 fell and the Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency and the break down in transports is flashing warning signs. The markets are breaking down from resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 as the recent rally appears to have concluded. A big move is imminent.  The critical levels to watch are 2060 (up) and 2040 (down) on the S & P and 7850 (up) and 7750 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.