About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Tuesday, 10 May 2016

Chart of the Day - Emerging Market Debt

The chart of the day comes courtesy The Telegraph and shows Non-Financial corporate debt in emerging markets hitting record levels in several key currencies. The debt is well over 20 Trillion dollars and is over double the amount observed in 2008 prior to the great recession.

emerging market debt

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Economic Calendar

GMT-4		Event	Actual	Consensus
Friday, Jun 20
08:30	US	Fed's Waller speech
08:30	CA	Raw Material Price Index	-0.4%	-0.8%	Revised from -3.0%
08:30	CA	Industrial Product Price (MoM)	-0.5%	0.0%
n/a	US	Fed Monetary Policy Report
13:00	US	Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count
Sunday, Jun 22
13:15	US	Fed's Daly speech
19:00	AU	S&P Global Services PMI
19:00	AU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
19:00	AU	S&P Global Composite PMI
Monday, Jun 23
03:00	US	Fed's Waller speech

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.