About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 13 March 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 14

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2022, 1.11%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
7510, 0.33%
Neutral**
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
2810, -2.22%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1251, -0.71%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
38.49, 5.95%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.24, -1.06%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
384, 10.03%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.118, 1.48%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
113.80, 0.05%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
7693, 0.54%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
34.33, 1.54%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.97%, 4.99%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
682, 110.54%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
16.50, -2.14%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
1932, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
1955, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2020, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7231, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
7389, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7930, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
17.10, -4.39%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
66.98, 0.04%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications

11

10
Bearish Indications
4
5
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The Sand P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
Markets are back at resistance. Looking for a retest of the recent lows soon.
On the Horizon
China – Loan data, Japan – Rate decision, U.K-Budget, Rate decision, Switzerland - Rate decision,  Australia –Employment data, New Zealand – GDP, Canada – CPI, U.S – Retail sales, CPI, FOMC rate decision, U. Mich. Consumer confidence
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The US market and Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016, looking for a retest of the recent lows later in March.  The critical levels to watch are 2040 (up) and 2000 (down) on the S & P and 7600 (up) and 7400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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