About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Friday, 4 March 2016

Kondratieff Winter Signals a Collapse Ahead?

For those who follow market and economic cycles other than the traditional 8 year cycle and the 40 year super cycle which all point to some serious downside in 2016 the Kondratieff cycle suggests we have entered a major winter wave which has serious downside implications between 2000 and 2020. We are in the last leg of the down wave that usually has the most downside. The last major winter wave lasted between 1929 and 1949 and covered the Great Depression of the 1930's. Here is a summary from kondratieffwavecycle.com.


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Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.