About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 9 August 2015

Stock Market Signals for the US S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 10

dow jones
Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2078, -1.25%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
8565, 0.37%
Neutral**
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3744, 2.20%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1093, -0.16%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
43.75, -6.46%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.33, -1.21%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1200, 6.10%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.0973, -0.09%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
124.21, 0.23%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
8251, -1.68%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.18%, -1.36%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
-339, 0.03%
Neutral
Neutral
US Vix
13.39, 10.48%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2102, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2096, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2073, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8517, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8362, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8435, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.91, 2.33%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
63.71, -0.43%
Neutral
Neutral




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
4
6

Bearish Indications
7
6

Outlook
Bearish
Neutral

Observation
The Sand P 500 sold off last week while the Nifty out performed slightly. Indicators are bearish.
The Vix is indicating complacency.  Market cycles are not favorable into mid August, so I am looking more downside.


On the Horizon
China loan data, Euro zone sentiment ZEW survey, US advance retail sales, German and Euro zone GDP, US U. Michigan consumer confidence






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, Dailyfx


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


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Signals are bearish for the upcoming week and market cycles are unfavorable into mid August so I am looking for more downside. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices.

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