About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 2 August 2015

Stock Market Signals for the US S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 3

dow jones
Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2104, 1.16%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8533, 0.13%
Neutral**
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3664, -10.00%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1095, -0.31%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
46.77, -2.48%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.35, -1.51%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1131, 4.14%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.0983, 0.08%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
123.92, 0.13%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
8392, 3.96%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.21%, -2.91%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
-339, -20.07%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
12.12, -11.79%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2096, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2099, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2068, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8482, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8343, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8418, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.57, -5.74%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
63.98, -0.19%
Neutral
Neutral




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
8
9

Bearish Indications
4
3

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The Sand P 500 rallied last week while the Nifty under performed. Indicators are bullish.
The Vix is indicating complacency.  Market cycles are not favorable into mid August, so I am looking for a top in the upcoming bounce.


On the Horizon
US Personal Consumption & ISM data, AUS, UK & India rate decisions, AUS, NZ, Canada and US employment data






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, Dailyfx


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


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 Lot of whipsaws off late. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week but market cycles are unfavorable into mid August so I will look for a top in the upcoming bounce. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices.

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