Mid Week Market Insight

The US markets continue to out perform amidst glaring divergences and sky high valuations. Emerging markets continue to sell off despite recent dollar weakness. This weeks report focuses on key developments in global stock markets from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Stock Markets

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 17

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2905, 1.16%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	11515, -0.64%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2862, -0.76%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1201, 0.06%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	68.99, 1.83%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.65, 0.90%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1366, -8.32%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1624, 0.46%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	111.99, 0.93%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	11571, 1.97%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	36.02, 0.73%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.99%, 1.77%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	425, -19.20%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	12.07, -18.88%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	152	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2884, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2844, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2744, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11546, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	11305, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10730, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	13.84, -0.34%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Rupee	72.05, 0.01%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	10	9
Bearish Indications	6	6
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty was down last week. Indicators are bullish. The markets are confirming secondary tops. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Japan – BOJ rate decision, New Zealand – GDP, Euro Zone – CPI, UK – CPI, Canada – CPI, Switzerland – SNB rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty was down last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. This rally is close to a major secondary top in key asset classes which has already formed in the Euro and commodities. This is going to be followed by a massive selloff most likely a deflationary collapse. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk is also very high. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2915 (up) and 2895 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11600 (up) and 11400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Mid Week Market Insight

Some interesting moves in the commodity markets off late. The precious market complex is still languishing near its recent lows while crude oil is near its recent highs. This weeks report focuses on key developments in global commodity markets from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Commodities