Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 16

 

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500		Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	3999, 2.67%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	17957, 0.54%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3195, 1.19%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1923, 2.87%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	80.11, 8.10%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	4.22, 7.84%	Bullish	Bullish
CRB Index	276, 4.19%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	946, -16.28%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.0833, 1.78%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	127.88, -3.17%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	14364, 3.52%	Bullish	Bullish
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	110.47, 1.72%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield Bonds (ETF)	93.96, 1.64%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10-year Bond Yield	3.50%, -1.74%	Bullish	Bullish
NYSE Summation Index	385, 1429%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	18.35, -13.16%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	122	Neutral	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Greed	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S & P 500	3869, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S & P 500	3914, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S & P 500	3981, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	18078, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	18296, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	17273, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S & P 500 P/E	20.80	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	21.54	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	14.46, -3.76%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	81.29, -1.20%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	16	16
Bearish Indications	4	6
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets are back at resistance. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – PPI, Eurozone – German CPI, CPI, UK – Employment data, CPI, China – GDP, Japan – BOJ rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 

The S and P and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The recent bounce is encountering resistance near the 200 DMA close to 4000 and a decisive downside has resumed as we transition from an inflationary regime to a deflationary collapse. The January effect may terminate abruptly this time around. The market is tracking closely the 1973/2008 moves down in the S and P, implying a panic low right ahead in the upcoming months (My views don’t matter, kindly pay attention to the levels). A dollar rebound is a likely catalyst.

The past week saw most global equity markets rally. Most emerging markets were up following a fall in interest rates. Transports led the move up. The Baltic dry index continues to crater. The dollar fell. Commodities rallied. Valuations are very expensive, market breadth rebounded, and the sentiment is improving. No fear yet though, as complacency reigns supreme. We could see any rebound to the 200 DMA near 4000 being sold into.

The ongoing currency crisis should resume and push risky assets to new lows across the board. Deflation is in the air despite the recent inflationary spike and the Chinese Yuan, Euro, commodities, and Yen are telegraphing just that. Feels like a 2008-style recession trade has begun, with a potential decline in risk assets across the board.

The S&P 500 is near the 200 DMA and is encountering resistance near this important mark, after spending a very long time above it, and its 200 DMA is declining. Monthly MACDs on most global markets are still negative. This spells trouble and opens up significant downside risk ahead. We have got bounces from recent lows without capitulation. This suggests the lows may not be in and the regime has changed from buying the dip to selling the rip. We may get a final flush down soon. Risky assets should continue breaking to the downside across the board. Downward earnings revisions are underway.

The Fed is aggressively tightening into a recession. Deflationary busts often begin after major inflationary scares. The market has corrected significantly and more is left on the downside. The Dollar, commodities, and, bond yields are continuing to flash major warning signs despite recent counter-trend moves.

The epic correction signal occurred with retail, hedge funds, and speculators all in, in January 2022, suggesting a major top is in. The moment of reckoning is here.   With extremely high valuations, a crash is on the menu. Low volatility suggests complacency and downside ahead.

We rallied 46% right after the Great Depression (the 1930s) first collapse and we rallied over 120% in our most recent rally of the COVID-19 lows. After extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 3300 area is emerging on the S and P, and 15000 should arrive on the Nifty in the next few months. The Nifty which has been out-performing will likely catch up with other assets on the downside soon.

The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting a reality check and getting smashed by rising rates and a strong dollar. Global yield curves have inverted significantly reflecting a major upcoming recession. Looking for significant underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly challenging macros. 

The critical levels to watch for the week are 4010 (up) and 3985 (down) on the S & P 500 and 18050 (up) and 17900 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.  High beta / P/E will get torched yet again and will likely prove to be a sell on every rise. Gold is increasingly looking like the asset class to own in the upcoming decade. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

 

 

Weekly Market Recap from Mooranalytics.com

 S&P 500 (H)

On a higher timeframe basis:  On 1/18/22 the break below the 4629.25 line warned of decent pressure and negated the medium-term bullish trend we were in since 3/23/20.  On 8/22/22 we left a medium-term bearish reversal above, which has brought in 676.75 of pressure from the 4178.75  open.  These are ON HOLD.  On a lower timeframe basis:  I warned of possible exhaustion at 3531.25-04.75 which had the potential to trigger a bullish correction with a minimum target of 3793.00—we held this with a 3502.00 low and have bounced 678.00, taking the target out; but the higher timeframe minimum target is 4190.50—we came just shy of this with a 4180.00 high.  These are ON HOLD.   I warned if the 4180.00 high held, it would likely start a bearish correction to exceed 224.00 from the high—we have seen 391.50.  This is ON HOLD.   The trade above 3851.94 (-.37 per/hour) warned of renewed strength—we have seen 205.75.  The trade above 3874.02(-42 per/hour) has brought in 147.50 of strength.  We are likely in a new lower/medium-timeframe bull structure, but have held lower timeframe exhaustion at 4023.50-30.50 with a 4021.50 high—I warned if this holds, it could facilitate a lower timeframe bearish correction against the move up, with a likely minimum target of 3939.75.   Decent trade below 3880.56 (+.28 per/hour starting at 9:30am) will project this downward.   

Gold (G)

On a higher timeframe basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 warned of renewed strength.  We have seen $905.5.  The break above $1,347.0 projected this upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum.  We have attained $744.2.  These are OFF HOLD.  We held major exhaustion at $2,071.6-93.2 with a $2,089.2 high and rolled over $46.7.  We rolled over from $2,079.6 for $456.6. These are ON HOLD.  On a lower timeframe basis:  The break above $1,641.2 (+1 tic per/hour) has brought in $271.7 of strength.  The trade above $1,667.8 (-.5 of a tic per/hour) has brought in $245.1. The solid trade above $1,679.5 (-1 tic per/hour) put this above a major formation --we are projected upward $80 minimum.  We have attained $233.4 so far.  We are in the third stretch of a higher timeframe bull structure.  The break above $1,769.4 has brought in $143.5 of strength.  The break above $1,860.0 warned of renewed strength—we have seen $52.9.  I warned of possible exhaustion to contend with on the way up at $1,907.1-23.3—we held this with a $1,906.5 high and rolled over $23.7, but are now testing the upper bounds of it.  Decent trade below $1,879.9 (+1 tic per/hour starting at 5:00am) should bring in decent pressure.   

Bitcoin

On a higher timeframe basis: The rollover on 11/10/21 put this into a bearish trend.  I warned the selloff should exceed $13,000 from the high of $69,355—we have seen $54,430 of this.  We held exhaustion on a bullish correction of the move down at $59,545 and rolled over $44,620.  We have come off $36,080 from the $51,005 close. On a lower timeframe basis:  The trade below $34,830 put this below a significant bearish formation that projected this downward $13,000 minimum, $35,000 (+) maximum.  We have attained $19,905.  We held exhaustion at $25,265-495 with a $25,270 high and rolled over $10,345.  We held exhaustion at $22,630 with a $22,875 high and rolled over $7,950.   These are ON HOLD.  The break back above $16,275-60 has brought in $2,780 of strength.  The trade above $17,245 (+3 per/hour) warns of continued higher trade—we have seen $1,810. The trade above $17,935 has brought in $1,120 of strength.  Trade back below $18,460-20 will warn of pressure.

Crude Oil (WTI) (G)

 On a macro basis:  On 4/29/20 we left a bullish reversal below—we have seen $115.13 from that open at $15.37 in the (N). We took out a major trendline at $55.15, which warned of significant strength. We have seen $75.35.  The break above $57.45-8.02 projected this upward $56 minimum, $89 (+) maximum. We attained $72.48.  These are OFF HOLD.  On a shorter-term basis:  Trade below $119.15 brought in $49.07 of pressure. The trade below $111.00 brought in $40.92 of pressure. The trade below $97.18 projected this down $8.30 (+) maximum. These are ON HOLD.   We held exhaustion below with a $70.31 low and bounced $11.19 into a lower timeframe bullish correction against the move down from $83.34.  This is OFF HOLD.  The trade above $76.60 warns of renewed strength.  We held exhaustion at $72.70 with a $72.46 low and bounced $6.70--this has the potential to start a multi-week bull structure.  Trade above $79.07 will project this upward by $8.40 minimum, and $25.80 (+) maximum.  A maintained gap lower will leave a minor bearish reversal above. Today has a good likelihood of seeing range expansion.

Natural Gas (G)

On a higher timeframe basis:  The failure back below 8440 brought in 4920 tics of pressure (in previous contracts).  The trade below 8208 warned of decent pressure.  I warned decent trade below 7188 would be a renewed sign of weakness—we came off 3668 tics.   I would NOTE: The trade below 5136-4993 projects this downward $2.80 minimum, $5.30 (+) maximum, which could be seen within 3 month’s time—we have traded $1.690 lower.  These are ON HOLD.   If we break solidly back above 5075-219, this will warn of solid higher trade for weeks, likely toward 7800 (+).  On a shorter-term basis:  The trade above 3733 (-8 tics per/hour) warned of strength.  We may have entered into a bullish correction against the move down from 6871.  I warned this went out poised for pressure before (if) resuming higher trade—we came off 75 tics before short covering off the low. 

Commodities trading involves a substantial degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Michael Moor does not guarantee profits and is not responsible for any trading losses of subscribers. No representation is made, stated or implied, that any investor will achieve results, profits or losses, even remotely similar to hypothetical results. Past performance is by no means indicative of future results. Information provided in this newsletter is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation with respect to the sale of purchase of any securities or commodities. Any copy, reprint, broadcast, or distribution of this report of any kind is strictly prohibited without the express written consent of Michael Moor. Michael Moor may execute transactions in a proprietary trading account that may be consistent or inconsistent with the contents of the newsletter. The content, statements, and viewpoints expressed in this publication are those of Michael Moor solely in his individual capacity and are not attributable to any person or entity other than Michael Moor

S&P 500, Energy, Gold, and Bitcoin Futures Overview from Mooranalytics.com for 1/10/23

 S&P 500 (H)

On a higher timeframe basis:  On 1/18/22 the break below the 4629.25 line warned of decent pressure and negated the medium-term bullish trend we were in since 3/23/20.  On 8/22/22 we left a medium-term bearish reversal above, which has brought in 676.75 of pressure from the 4178.75  open.  These are ON HOLD.  On a lower timeframe basis:  I warned of possible exhaustion at 3531.25-04.75 which had the potential to trigger a bullish correction with a minimum target of 3793.00—we held this with a 3502.00 low and have bounced 678.00, taking the target out; but the higher timeframe minimum target is 4190.50—we came just shy of this with a 4180.00 high this morning.  These are ON HOLD.   I warned if the 4180.00 high held, it would likely start a bearish correction to exceed 224.00 from the high—we have seen 391.50.  This is ON HOLD.   The trade above 3851.94 (-.37 per/hour) warned of renewed strength—we have seen 157.50.  The trade above 3874.02(-42 per/hour) has brought in 99.25 of strength.  However, this went out weak on the day and poised for pressure.    Decent trade below 3860.60 (+.28 per/hour starting at 9:30am) will project this downward.  Decent trade below 3839.54 (+19 per/hour) will also warn of decent pressure; but if we break below here decently and back above decently, look for decent short covering. 

 

Gold (G)

On a higher timeframe basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 warned of renewed strength.  We have seen $905.5.  The break above $1,347.0 projected this upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum.  We have attained $744.2.  These are OFF HOLD.  We held major exhaustion at $2,071.6-93.2 with a $2,089.2 high and rolled over $46.7.  We rolled over from $2,079.6 for $456.6. These are ON HOLD.  On a lower timeframe basis:  The break above $1,641.2 (+1 tic per/hour) has brought in $245.2 of strength.  The solid trade above $1,679.5 (-1 tic per/hour) put this above a major formation --we are projected upward $80 minimum.  We have attained $206.9 so far.  The trade above $1,752.1 (-.3 of a tic per/hour) has brought in $134.3 of the strength warned about.  We are in the third stretch of a higher timeframe bull structure.  I would be aware of areas of possible exhaustion to contend with on the way up at $1,907.1-23.3, which are both a combination of lower and higher timeframe exhaustion.  The break above $1,860.0 warned of renewed strength—we have seen $26.4.  Decent trade below $1,873.4 (+1 tic per/hour starting at 5:00am) should bring in decent pressure. 

 

Bitcoin

On a higher timeframe basis: The rollover on 11/10/21 put this into a bearish trend.  I warned the selloff should exceed $13,000 from the high of $69,355—we have seen $54,430 of this.  We held exhaustion on a bullish correction of the move down at $59,545 and rolled over $44,620.  We have come off $36,080 from the $51,005 close. On a lower timeframe basis:  The trade below $34,830 put this below a significant bearish formation that projected this downward $13,000 minimum, $35,000 (+) maximum.  We have attained $19,905.  We held exhaustion at $25,265-495 with a $25,270 high and rolled over $10,345.  We held exhaustion at $22,630 with a $22,875 high and rolled over $7,950.   The break below $18,065 (-5 tics per/hour) brought in $3,140 of the pressure warned about.  These are ON HOLD.  The break back above $16,275-60 has brought in $1,165 of strength.  The trade above 17244 (+3 per/hour) warns of continued higher trade. Decent trade back below where it comes in at 17303 (+3 per/hour starting at 6:00am) will negate the bias above.  Decent trade back below $16,564 (-1.6 per/hour starting at 6:00am) will warn of decent pressure.

 

Crude Oil (WTI) (G)

 On a macro basis:  On 4/29/20 we left a bullish reversal below—we have seen $115.13 from that open at $15.37 in the (N). We took out a major trendline at $55.15, which warned of significant strength. We have seen $75.35.  The break above $57.45-8.02 projected this upward $56 minimum, $89 (+) maximum. We attained $72.48.  These are ON HOLD.  On a shorter-term basis:  Trade below $119.15 brought in $49.07 of pressure. The trade below $111.00 brought in $40.92 of pressure. The trade below $97.18 projected this down $8.30 (+) maximum. These are OFF HOLD.   We held exhaustion below with a $70.31 low and bounced $11.19 into a lower timeframe bullish correction against the move down from $83.34.  This is ON HOLD.  We are in a bearish correction/trend against the move up from $70.31, with the last area of possible exhaustion (if it is a correction) coming in at $72.70—we basically held this with a $72.46 low and bounced $4.28--this has the potential to start a multi-week bull structure.  The decent trade below $76.79 projects this downward $4.70—we attained $4.33 before short covering of the low.  I noted we left a medium-term bearish reversal above Wednesday that also warned of pressure.  Decent trade above $76.60 will negate this and warn of renewed strength.  Trade above $79.98 will project this upward by $8.40 minimum, and $25.80 (+) maximum.

 

Natural Gas (G)

On a higher timeframe basis:  The failure back below 8440 brought in 4920 tics of pressure (in previous contracts).  The trade below 8208 warned of decent pressure.  I warned decent trade below 7188 would be a renewed sign of weakness—we came off 3668 tics.   I would NOTE: The trade below 5136-4993 projects this downward $2.80 minimum, $5.30 (+) maximum, which could be seen within 3 months’ time—we have traded $1.690 lower.  These are ON HOLD.   If we break solidly back above 5048-192, this will warn of solid higher trade for weeks, likely toward 7800 (+).  On a shorter-term basis:  The trade above 3733 (-8 tics per/hour) warned of strength.  Decent trade back below where this comes in at 3507 (-8 tics per/hour starting at 8:00am) should bring in decent pressure. 

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Commodities trading involves a substantial degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Michael Moor does not guarantee profits and is not responsible for any trading losses of subscribers. No representation is made, stated or implied, that any investor will achieve results, profits or losses, even remotely similar to hypothetical results. Past performance is by no means indicative of future results. Information provided in this newsletter is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation with respect to the sale of purchase of any securities or commodities. Any copy, reprint, broadcast, or distribution of this report of any kind is strictly prohibited without the express written consent of Michael Moor. Michael Moor may execute transactions in a proprietary trading account that may be consistent or inconsistent with the contents of the newsletter. The content, statements, and viewpoints expressed in this publication are those of Michael Moor solely in his individual capacity and are not attributable to any person or entity other than Michael Moor