About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Wednesday, 4 July 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

More trouble in emerging market land. Massive curve flattening across the globe. China free fall continues. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Midweek Market Insight

Sunday, 1 July 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 02

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2718, -1.33%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	10714, -0.99%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2847, -1.47%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1255, -1.27%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	74.15, 8.12%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.97, -2.02%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1329, -1.34%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1694, 0.28%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	110.61, 0.58%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	10345, -3.97%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	35.48, -1.06%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.85%, -1.76%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	541, -22.35%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	16.09, 16.85%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	142	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2755, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2717, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2669, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10745, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	10692, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10440, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	12.94, 7.61%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	68.44, 0.87%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	5	4
Bearish Indications	11	13
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish. The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	U.S – Employment data

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The recent yield spike and dollar strength should limit upside in the short term. High yield is diverging from the oil price and so are transports from the major indices. The critical levels to watch are 2730 (up) and 2705 (down) on the S & P and 10800 (up) and 10600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Wednesday, 27 June 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

China in absolute free fall and the collapse in the yuan is putting pressure on risk assets across the globe. While growth seems to be holding up in the US it is collapsing everywhere else and just a matter of time before the malaise spreads to the US. The emerging market currency rout continues. This and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Mid Week Market Insight

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.