About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Wednesday, 9 May 2018

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily market insight from some of the best asset managers, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Sunday, 6 May 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 07

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2663, -0.24%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	10618, -0.69%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3091, 0.29%	Neutral	Neutral
Gold	1315, -0.66%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	69.72, 2.38%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	3.09, 1.30%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1376, 0.07%	Neutral	Neutral
Euro	1.1971, -1.36%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	109.09, 0.00%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	10370, -1.70%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	35.71, 0.01%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.94%, -0.44%	Neutral	Neutral
Nyse Summation Index	166, -19.02%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	14.77, -4.15%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	127	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2660, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2681, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2616, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10552, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10393, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10283, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	13.25, 10.26%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	66.81, 0.45%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	5	6
Bearish Indications	5	5
Outlook	Neutral	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed. The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia – Retail sales, New Zealand – Rate decision, UK- Manufacturing production, BOE rate decision, Euro – Draghi speech, U.S – Powell speech, PPI, Oil inventories, CPI, Canada – Employment data

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

Chart courtesy David Rosenberg

The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. The markets are gearing for a really big directional move. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Indian market volatility is still well below US market volatility as the nifty is close to resistance while the US market has hit resistance and turned down. The critical levels to watch are 2675 (up) and 2650 (down) on the S & P and 10700 (up) and 10500 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Wednesday, 2 May 2018

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily market insight from some of the best asset managers, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Daily Market Insight

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.