About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Saturday, 4 February 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 6

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2297, 0.12%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
8741, 1.15%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3140, -0.60%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1221, 2.73%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
53.83, 1.24%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.62, -2.73%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
752, -9.07%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.079, 0.81%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
112.61, -2.11%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
9242, -2.15%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
36.88, 0.15%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.49%, 0.40%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse Summation Index
654, -4.10%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
10.97, 3.69%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2278, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2255, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2161, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8473, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8268, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8352, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.13, -17.98%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
67.17, -1.35%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
6

9
Bearish Indications
7
6
Outlook
Bearish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mixed.
The Trump bounce is largely over. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
China – New loan data, Australia – Rate decision, New Zealand – Rate decision,  U.S - U. Mich. consumer confidence,  Canada –Employment data, India - RBI rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals february 6

The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty moved up last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. Possible FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Bond yields are surging back up. Transports are under performing and the Baltic dry index is crashing again. The critical levels to watch are 2310 (up) and 2290 (down) on the S & P and 8800 (up) and 8700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


Thursday, 2 February 2017

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at all the recent Central Bank activity:

Wednesday, 1 February 2017

Indicator Watch - How to Use the Bollinger Bands in Trading?

Technical indicators are widely used in trading to determine market direction over different time frames. One of the widely followed technical indicators is the Bollinger Band. Here is a useful video from John Bollinger via Metastock that shows you how to use this useful tool in trading:

World Indices


Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com

Market Insight

My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

See Our Pins

Trading Ideas

Forex Insight

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

India Market Insight

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.