Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 11

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2130, 1.28%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	8323, -0.06%	Neutral**	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	2988, 1.90%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1367, 1.67%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	45.12, -8.44%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.12, -4.39%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	703, 3.84%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.105, -0.80%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	100.45, -2.03%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	7683, 1.66%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	36.07, 1.52%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	1.37%, -6.18%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	915, 12.16%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	13.20, -10.63%	Bullish	Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2080, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2078, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2026, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	8217, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	8059, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	7799, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	15.08, -4.16%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	67.13, -0.09%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	12	12
Bearish Indications	4	4
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The Sand P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish. Markets are challenging resistance again. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	China – CPI, GDP, Australia – Employment data, England – BOE rate decision, U.S – Import price index, CPI, Retail sales, U. Mich. Consumer confidence, Canada – Rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The Sand P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency.  The Yen, gold and treasuries are indicating a flight to safety. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 after this rally concludes. The critical levels to watch are 2140 (up) and 2120 (down) on the S & P and 8400 (up) and 8250 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and

P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Chart of the Week - Global GDP

The chart of the week is courtesy of Bloomberg and shows historic and projected levels for Global GDP. Global GDP has remained below levels observed before the great recession of 2008-2009 and is expected to remain so for the foreseeable future:

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 4

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2103, 3.22%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	8328, 2.96%	Neutral**	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2933, 2.74%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1345, 1.96%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	49.28, 3.59%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.22, 4.89%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	677, 11.17%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.110, -0.22%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	102.58, 0.43%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	7558, 3.24%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	35.53, 1.76%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	1.46%, -7.79%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	815, 5.59%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	14.77, -42.66%	Bullish	Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2082, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2077, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2023, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	8196, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	8024, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	7788, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	15.74, -15.51%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	67.19, -1.04%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	14	16
Bearish Indications	0	0
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The Sand P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are overly bullish. Markets are challenging resistance again. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia – Rate decision, England – BOE financial stability report, U.S – ISM, Employment data, Canada – Employment data
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The Sand P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Signals are at bullish extremes for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 after this rally concludes. The critical levels to watch are 2110 (up) and 2090 (down) on the S & P and 8400 (up) and 8250 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.