Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 13

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2096, -0.15%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	8170, -0.62%	Neutral**	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2927, -0.39%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1276, 2.39%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	48.88, -0.04%	Neutral	Neutral
Copper	2.03, -4.41%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	611, 0.16%	Neutral	Neutral
Euro	1.132, -0.46%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	106.92, 0.37%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	7765, 0.45%	Neutral	Neutral
High Yield (ETF)	35.28, 0.43%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	1.64%, -3.81%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	990, 17.45%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	17.03, 26.43%	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2083, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2076, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2015, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	8043, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	7891, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	7772, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	15.97, 6.50%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	66.97, 0.28%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	6	5
Bearish Indications	3	5
Outlook	Bullish	Neutral
Observation	The Sand P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed. Markets are failing at resistance again. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	China – New loan data, Japan – Rate decision, Australia – Employment data, New Zealand – GDP, Switzerland – Rate decision, England – CPI, Rate decision, U.S – Retail sales, FOMC rate decision, CPI, Canada – CPI
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The Sand P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. The big move up in the Vix is suggesting some serious down side ahead. The markets are failing at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016. 

The critical levels to watch are 2110 (up) and 2080 (down) on the S & P and 8250 (up) and 8100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Chart of the Day - Growth in the S & P 500, P/E Ratio, Earnings

The chart of the day is courtesy the SRSrocco report and is a comparison of the increase in the S and P 500 and its P/E ratio since 2011 relative to its change in earnings.  A pretty big divergence is seen with earnings growth lagging far behind. Either the earnings growth has to catch up or prices have to come down in line with the sub par earnings growth observed.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 6

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2099, 0.00%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	8221, 0.79%	Neutral**	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2939, 4.17%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1247, 2.57%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	48.90, -1.33%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.12, 0.43%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	610, 0.66%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.136, 1.80%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	106.53, -3.37%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	7730, -0.54%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	35.13, 0.13%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	1.70%, -7.94%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	843, 15.23%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	13.47, 2.67%	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2072, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2070, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2011, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	7954, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	7836, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	7777, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	14.99, -1.74%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	66.78, -0.37%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	9	10
Bearish Indications	5	5
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The Sand P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish. Markets are challenging resistance again. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia – Rate decision, New Zealand – Rate decision, U.S – Janet Yellen speech, U of Mich. consumer confidence, Canada – Employment data, India - RBI rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 The Sand P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 after this rally concludes. The critical levels to watch are 2110 (up) and 2080 (down) on the S & P and 8250 (up) and 8150 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.