About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Sunday, 5 June 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 6

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2099, 0.00%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	8221, 0.79%	Neutral**	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2939, 4.17%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1247, 2.57%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	48.90, -1.33%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.12, 0.43%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	610, 0.66%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.136, 1.80%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	106.53, -3.37%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	7730, -0.54%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	35.13, 0.13%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	1.70%, -7.94%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	843, 15.23%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	13.47, 2.67%	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2072, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2070, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2011, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	7954, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	7836, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	7777, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	14.99, -1.74%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	66.78, -0.37%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	9	10
Bearish Indications	5	5
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The Sand P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish. Markets are challenging resistance again. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia – Rate decision, New Zealand – Rate decision, U.S – Janet Yellen speech, U of Mich. consumer confidence, Canada – Employment data, India - RBI rate decision

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The Sand P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 after this rally concludes. The critical levels to watch are 2110 (up) and 2080 (down) on the S & P and 8250 (up) and 8150 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.