About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Wednesday, 23 March 2016

Interesting Charts from StockTwits

Thought I would take a look at some interesting charts from my feed on StockTwits:

1) The first chart is from User ColoradoGuy on StockTwits suggesting a bearish reversal ahead:

2) The next chart from User Johnkicklighter on StockTwits show speculative shorts at very high levels as the market has been rallying:

3) User Jakewu92 on StockTwits points out some important resistance ahead on the S & P 500:

4) Another interesting chart from User TheInformedTrader pointing out some key resistance ahead:

Sunday, 20 March 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 21

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2050, 1.35%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	7604, 1.25%	Neutral**	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2955, 5.15%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1256, 0.39%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	41.13, 6.86%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.29, 2.24%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	392, 2.08%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.132, 1.49%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	111.59, -1.94%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	8076, 4.97%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	34.54, 0.61%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	1.87%, -5.36%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	917, 34.35%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	14.02, -15.03%	Bullish	Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500	1986, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	1932, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2017, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	7337, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	7356, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	7909, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	16.38, -4.18%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	66.38, -0.89%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	14	15
Bearish Indications	1	2
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The Sand P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish. Markets are back at resistance. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	Japan – CPI, U.K-CPI, U.S – Durable goods

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The US market and Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 once this rally concludes. A big move is imminent. The critical levels to watch are 2060 (up) and 2040 (down) on the S & P and 7650 (up) and 7550 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Thursday, 17 March 2016

Ahead of the Curve Invites Guest Posts

Ahead of the Curve invites original non-commercial content in the areas of global financial markets and economics. Kindly view sample guest post below for format and content:
http://rajveersmarketviews.blogspot.com/2016/03/net-net-stocks-and-karnalyte-cash-cow.html
Posts for consideration can be sent to rajveersmarketviews@gmail.com

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.