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Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 20 March 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 21

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2050, 1.35%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
7604, 1.25%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2955, 5.15%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1256, 0.39%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
41.13, 6.86%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.29, 2.24%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
392, 2.08%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.132, 1.49%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
111.59, -1.94%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
8076, 4.97%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
34.54, 0.61%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.87%, -5.36%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
917, 34.35%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
14.02, -15.03%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
1986, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
1932, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2017, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7337, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
7356, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7909, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
16.38, -4.18%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
66.38, -0.89%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications

14

15
Bearish Indications
1
2
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The Sand P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
Markets are back at resistance. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
Japan – CPI, U.K-CPI, U.S – Durable goods
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


The US market and Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 once this rally concludes. A big move is imminent.  The critical levels to watch are 2060 (up) and 2040 (down) on the S & P and 7650 (up) and 7550 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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2 comments:

  1. DC24 March 2016 at 19:35

    7650 broken on two closing. What next?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Rajveer24 March 2016 at 19:51

    Break down likely post the RBI, for now up above 7750, down below 7650

    ReplyDelete

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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.