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Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Tuesday, 15 March 2016

Dollar Strength to Return?

Yet another FED day has come and gone, the dollar has been trending down and is approaching oversold levels and could trigger a risk off trade near term, here's how to play this:

1) Dollar Strength:

The dollar is oversold and is likely to bounce from oversold levels and strengthen against the Euro: 

Can play this via the Ultralong Dollar ETF UUP: 

PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP)

 2) This should trigger a selloff in commodities like gold, oil and base metals which are overbought: 

Can play this via the ultra short basic materials ETF SMN: 

ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials (SMN)

 3) The Volatility picture remains complacent suggesting a surge in volatility post the fed. 

Can play it via the ultra long ETF on volatility UVXY: 

ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY)

 4) This could trigger a selloff in stocks, with the S & P 500 breaking down out of a massive rising wedge on the long term charts courtesy stocktwits.com: 


 Can play this via ultra short ETF’s

5) Collapsing High Yield:

A high yield collapse is just around the corner and can be played via the ultra short ETF SJB:

ProShares Short High Yield (SJB)
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Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.