About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday, 6 September 2015

Market Signals for the US S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 7


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
1921, -3.40%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
7655, -4.34%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3160, -2.23%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1122, -0.91%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
45.77, 1.02%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.31, -1.24%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
875, -3.10%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1147, -0.30%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
119.05, -2.26%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
7794, -1.45%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.13%, -2.65%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
-583, 4.72%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
27.80, 6.72%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2006, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2057, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2073, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8135, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
8344, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8432, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
26.42, 13.26%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
66.69, 0.82%
Neutral
Bearish




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
3
2

Bearish Indications
12
14

Outlook
Bearish
Bearish

Observation
The Sand P 500 and Nifty were down hard last week. Indicators are bearish.
The Vix moves are flashing crash signs.  Looking for more downside in the Nifty and the S and P 500 with a possible retest of earlier lows.


On the Horizon
Euro zone GDP, New Zealand, Canada and UK rate decisions Australia employment  data, China loan data and CPI, US U. Mich. consumer confidence.






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, Dailyfx


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


The markets were smashed last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week and markets are in crash mode. There will be more downside upcoming in the Nifty and the S and P 500, with at least a retest of the lows for the S and P 500 near 1867. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices.

Tuesday, 1 September 2015

Interesting Charts from the World of Economics and Financial Markets-1


1) The first chart comes from Bloomberg which captures the entire set of events around China’s stock market crash:


2) The second chart is from Craig Hemke at goldseek.com highlighting a death candle on the long term S and P 500 chart that typically forms during major market tops as was the case in 2000 and 2008:


3) The third chart is from Adam Hamilton at Zealllc.com that suggests the recent spike up in the #Vix is a warning that the Fed’s grip on the markets may be reducing:

4) The last chart is from Clive Maund at clivemaund.com that shows the massive 7 year rising wedge in the S and P 500 breaking, suggesting further downside ahead:


You can see some more interesting charts here.


Sunday, 30 August 2015

Market Signals for the US S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 31


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
1989, 0.91%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8002, -3.59%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3232, -7.85%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1133, -2.35%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
45.31, 12.46%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.35, 2.18%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
903, -9.15%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1180, -1.83%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
121.73, -0.27%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
7909, 0.46%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.19%, 6.43%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
-612, -55.97%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
26.05, -7.06%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2043, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2075, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2075, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8327, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
8403, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8447, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
23.33, 36.31%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
66.15, -0.09%
Neutral
Neutral




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
4
4

Bearish Indications
9
10

Outlook
Bearish
Bearish

Observation
The Sand P 500 was up from oversold levels while the Nifty was down hard last week. Indicators are bearish.
The Vix moves are flashing crash signs.  Looking for more downside in the Nifty and the S and P 500.


On the Horizon
US, Canada and German employment  data, Australia and ECB rate decisions, US and China PMI data, Euro zone CPI, Australia and Canada GDP






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, Dailyfx


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral



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My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.