About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Tuesday, 1 September 2015

Interesting Charts from the World of Economics and Financial Markets-1


1) The first chart comes from Bloomberg which captures the entire set of events around China’s stock market crash:


2) The second chart is from Craig Hemke at goldseek.com highlighting a death candle on the long term S and P 500 chart that typically forms during major market tops as was the case in 2000 and 2008:


3) The third chart is from Adam Hamilton at Zealllc.com that suggests the recent spike up in the #Vix is a warning that the Fed’s grip on the markets may be reducing:

4) The last chart is from Clive Maund at clivemaund.com that shows the massive 7 year rising wedge in the S and P 500 breaking, suggesting further downside ahead:


You can see some more interesting charts here.


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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.