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Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 6 September 2015

Market Signals for the US S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 7


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
1921, -3.40%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
7655, -4.34%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3160, -2.23%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1122, -0.91%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
45.77, 1.02%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.31, -1.24%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
875, -3.10%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1147, -0.30%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
119.05, -2.26%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
7794, -1.45%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.13%, -2.65%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
-583, 4.72%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
27.80, 6.72%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2006, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2057, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2073, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8135, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
8344, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8432, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
26.42, 13.26%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
66.69, 0.82%
Neutral
Bearish




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
3
2

Bearish Indications
12
14

Outlook
Bearish
Bearish

Observation
The Sand P 500 and Nifty were down hard last week. Indicators are bearish.
The Vix moves are flashing crash signs.  Looking for more downside in the Nifty and the S and P 500 with a possible retest of earlier lows.


On the Horizon
Euro zone GDP, New Zealand, Canada and UK rate decisions Australia employment  data, China loan data and CPI, US U. Mich. consumer confidence.






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, Dailyfx


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


The markets were smashed last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week and markets are in crash mode. There will be more downside upcoming in the Nifty and the S and P 500, with at least a retest of the lows for the S and P 500 near 1867. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices.
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