Trading Strategies for Fed Day and Beyond

The Fed's first rate hike is still far away. Several key asset classes could head lower post the #Fed despite the FOMC affirming  a dovish outlook. Markets have been breaking down recently and the bearish trend could resume post the #FOMC. Let us look at some key markets:


S& P 500
Current: 1958

Support: 

Recent Lows – 1867

Resistance: 

Recent Highs - 2021

The 50 Day Moving Average (DMA) – 2041

Outlook: Bearish

Long: 1950 Put

Hedge : 1980 Call

Euro:

Current: 1.130

Support: 

50 Day Moving Average (DMA) – 1.1108

Resistance: 

50 Day Weekly Moving Average (DMA) – 1.1464

Outlook: Bearish

Long: 1.12 Put

Hedge : 1.14 Call

Gold ETF GLD:

Current: 109.21

Support: 

50 DMA – 107.29

Resistance: 

20 WMA – 110.44

Outlook: Bullish

Long: 110 Call

Hedge : 108 Put

Oil ETF USO:

Current: 14.62

Support:
20 DMA - 14.48

Resistance : 

50 DMA – 15.24
20 WMA - 17.43

Outlook: Bearish

Long: 14.5 Put

Hedge : 15.5 Call

Nifty:

Current: 7981

Support: 

Monthly lows – 7553

Resistance: 

Recent Highs – 8091

Outlook: Bearish

Long: 7800 Put

Hedge : 8100 Call

Trading Strategies for Fed Day and Beyond http://t.co/eYo9u5bwMJ pic.twitter.com/K9VVPiBl5o

— samuelR (@RajveerRawlin) September 17, 2015

Stock Market Signals for the US and Indian Stock Markets for the Upcoming Week beginning June 15

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change / Significance	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2094, 0.06%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	7983, -1.62%	Neutral**	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	5166, 2.85%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1181, 0.75%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	59.94, 1.80%	Bullish	Bearish
Copper	2.68, -0.96%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	642, 5.25%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.126, 1.44%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	123.85, -1.34%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	8417,- 1.09%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.39%, -0.71%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	-150, -584%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	13.78, -3.03%	Bullish	Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2111, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2103, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2048, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	8251, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	8353, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	8346, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	17.48, -3.37%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	64.10, -0.01%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	8	7
Bearish Indications	6	8
Outlook	Marginally Bullish	Marginally Bearish
Observation	The Sand P 500 held support at 2085 while the Nifty under performed significantly last week. The summation index is flashing warning signs. Market cycles are positive till July so a rally is likely through the FOMC. Also Expecting a big move up in the Nifty this week.
On the Horizon	Greece, FOMC, Speech from ECB President Draghi, US CPI
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

Last weeks bearish signals have largely been negated. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison.

Some Great Reads from the World of Economics and Financial Markets

VELOCITY of Money Below Great Depression Levels
Forecaster Martin Armstrong writes on how the velocity of money today is below levels that were observed in the Great Depression (#greatdep).

Are We in a Stock Market Bubble?

Tara Clarke at Money Morning analyses Nobel Laureate and Yale professor of economics Robert Shiller's views.

China’s soft May inflation increases calls for fiscal stimulus

Craig Erlam at MarketPulse discusses the rational for a #stimulus in China following soft inflation figures.

Guess How Many Nations In The World Do Not Have A Central Bank?

Michael Snyder at the Economic Collapse Blog provides an insight on countries with and without Central Banks.

3 Things to Remember When Trading Bigger Forex Positions

Dr. Pipslow at BabyPips.com offers some key pointers on trading large Forex positions.

The Sound of an Improving Labor Market

Barry Ritholtz  at The Big Picture writes about the improving labour market in the US.

NIFTY Death cross and support at the Neck line

San at Nifty charts and patterns provides a technical update on India's benchmark stock market #Nifty Index.