About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Showing posts with label trading strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trading strategy. Show all posts

Thursday, 15 December 2016

Succesful Trading Methodology

Here are some insights on how to trade successfully from the currency strategists at fxstreet. They look at different aspects of trading and loss minimization strategies that help you develop into a successful forex trader:

Tuesday, 27 September 2016

Indicator Watch - How to Use the RSI in Trading

Technical indicators are widely used in trading to determine market direction over different time frames. One of the widely followed technical indicators is the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Here is a useful video from MarketGurukul.com that shows you how to use the RSI in identifying entry and exit levels in trading:

Tuesday, 16 June 2015

Trading Strategies for Fed Day and Beyond

The Fed's first rate hike is still far away. Several key asset classes could head lower post the #Fed despite the FOMC affirming  a dovish outlook. Markets have been breaking down recently and the bearish trend could resume post the #FOMC. Let us look at some key markets:
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S& P 500
Current: 1958
Support: 
Recent Lows – 1867
Resistance: 
Recent Highs - 2021
The 50 Day Moving Average (DMA) – 2041
Outlook: Bearish
Long: 1950 Put
Hedge : 1980 Call

Euro:

Current: 1.130
Support: 
50 Day Moving Average (DMA) – 1.1108
Resistance: 
50 Day Weekly Moving Average (DMA) – 1.1464
Outlook: Bearish
Long: 1.12 Put
Hedge : 1.14 Call

Gold ETF GLD:
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Current: 109.21
Support: 
50 DMA – 107.29
Resistance: 
20 WMA – 110.44
Outlook: Bullish
Long: 110 Call
Hedge : 108 Put

Oil ETF USO:
United States Oil ETF (USO)
Current: 14.62
Support:
20 DMA - 14.48
Resistance : 
50 DMA – 15.24
20 WMA - 17.43
Outlook: Bearish
Long: 14.5 Put
Hedge : 15.5 Call

Nifty:
Current: 7981
Support: 
Monthly lows – 7553
Resistance: 
Recent Highs – 8091
Outlook: Bearish
Long: 7800 Put
Hedge : 8100 Call

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My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.