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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 16 June 2024

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 17

 

Asset Class

Weekly Level / Change

Implication for S & P 500

Implication for Nifty*

S & P 500

5432, 1.58%

Bullish

Bullish

Nifty

23466, 0.75%

Neutral **

Bullish

China Shanghai Index

3033, -0.61%

Bearish

Bearish

Gold

2348, 1.01%

Bullish

Bullish

WTIC Crude

78.05, 3.34%

Bullish

Bullish

Copper

4.50, 0.33%

Neutral

Neutral

CRB Index

294, 1.52%

Bullish

Bullish

Baltic Dry Index

1948, 3.56%

Bullish

Bullish

Euro

1.0702, -0.91%

Bearish

Bearish

Dollar/Yen

157.38, 0.43%

Neutral

Neutral

Dow Transports

14808, -1.43%

Bearish

Neutral

Corporate Bonds (ETF)

108.46, 1.40%

Bullish

Bullish

High Yield Bonds (ETF)

94.15, 0.23%

Neutral

Neutral

US 10-year Bond Yield

4.22%, -4.79%

Bullish

Bullish

NYSE Summation Index

281, -37%

Bearish

Neutral

US Vix

12.66, 3.60%

Bearish

Neutral

S & P 500 Skew

156

Bearish

Neutral

CNN Fear & Greed Index

Fear

Bullish

Neutral

Nifty MMI Index

Greed

Neutral

Bearish

20 DMA, S & P 500

5328, Above

Bullish

Neutral

50 DMA, S & P 500

5210, Above

Bullish

Neutral

200 DMA, S & P 500

4822, Above

Bullish

Neutral

20 DMA, Nifty

22883, Above

Neutral

Bullish

50 DMA, Nifty

22583, Above

Neutral

Bullish

200 DMA, Nifty

21205, Above

Neutral

Bullish

S & P 500 P/E

28.23

Bearish

Neutral

Nifty P/E

22.32

Neutral

Bearish

India Vix

12.82, -24.05%

Neutral

Bullish

Dollar/Rupee

83.55, 0.03%

Neutral

Neutral

 

 

Overall

 

 

S & P 500

 

 

Nifty

 

Bullish Indications

11

12

Bearish Indications

7

4

 

Outlook

Bullish

Bullish

Observation

 

The S&P and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.

Markets are at resistance among glaring divergences. Watch those stops.

On the Horizon

Eurozone – CPI, UK – CPI, BOE rate decision

*Nifty

 

India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index

Raw Data

Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in

**Neutral

Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 


The S&P 500 and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are at resistance near all-time highs among glaring divergences. We are transitioning from an inflationary regime to a deflationary collapse. The markets are at new highs and risk-reward is poor at these levels. The Nifty is also at new highs and will likely underperform.

The past week saw US equity markets rise. Most emerging markets rose, as interest rates fell. Transports fell. The Baltic dry index rose. The dollar rose. Commodities rose. Valuations continue to be quite expensive, market breadth declined, and the sentiment is now bearish. Fear (S&P 500) rose this week, as a possible reality check from a FED Pivot loom.

After this rally, a currency crisis should resume and push risky assets lower across the board. Deflation is in the air despite the recent inflationary spike and bonds are telegraphing just that. Feels like a 2008-style recession trade has begun, with a potential for a decline in risk assets across the board. The current market is tracking closely the 2000 moves down in the S&P 500, implying a panic low right ahead in the upcoming months (My views do not matter, kindly pay attention to the levels). A dollar rebound from major support is a likely catalyst.

The S&P 500 is near all-time highs. We have bounced from recent lows without capitulation. This suggests the lows may not be in and the regime has changed from buying the dip to selling the rip. We may get a final flush down soon. Risky assets should continue breaking to the downside, as earnings growth peaks.

The Fed has aggressively tightened into a recession. Deflationary busts often begin after major inflationary scares. The market has rebounded after correcting significantly, and more is left on the downside. The Dollar, commodities, and bond yields continue to flash major warning signs.

Global yield curves have inverted significantly reflecting a major upcoming recessionThe recent steepening of the yield curve, within an inverted context, with rates falling, is a precursor to the next recession, and the riskiest assets will underperform going forward under such conditions. 

The critical levels to watch for the week are 5445 (up) and 5420 (down) on the S&P 500 and 23550 (up) and 23400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.  High beta / P/E will get torched yet again and will likely prove to be a sell on every rise. Gold is increasingly looking like the asset class, (though overextended short-term) to own over the next decade. (Gold exploded almost 8 times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000, just imagine what would happen when this AI bubble bursts? following the recent crypto bubble burst) You can check out last week’s report nullfor a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

 

 

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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.